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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (46307)	5/6/2001 2:19:28 PM
From: John Trader	Respond to of 70976

Micheal, I agree. If the Naz gets up around 4000, I will be "heading for the hills" with a good portion of my portfolio. This effect will make it hard for us to get there, unless there is some real fundamental changes that warrant higher prices, in which case I would sell less. One potential benefit long-term to tech stocks from higher energy costs is that technology can save theoretically save a lot of energy. For example, at some point it may make more sense to telecommute to work for certain types of workers (e.g. programmers, maybe some engineers) if the bandwidth is there. It does seem kind of inefficient for everyone to get up each day and drive a 3,000 to 5,000 lb vehicle to work and back. Of course we could go with much much more energy efficient cars, but Detroit and the consumer does not seem to want that now. My overall belief is that we are wasting the precious resource of oil for future generations. But it would be hard to turn things around quickly. If prices keep going up it should self-correct a bit also. Sure hope we don't get back to that stagflation problem of the 70's. I do just barely remember WIN buttons. I am probably too much of an optimist, but I think the economy will be in good shape overall over the next 5 years or so. There are lots of positives. I think technology is making us more adaptable, and I think the experience of the the 70's means that we are not likely to repeat it. Other fundamental positives are that the "cold war" is pretty much over, the baby boomer argument, tax cuts coming, etc. Also there should be some kind of intangible benefit just due to the networking effect from the internet. One example is companies linking with their suppliers and employees better. John