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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (46312)	5/6/2001 2:26:42 PM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Ian, I replayed the tape, you are absolutely right, he said 3943 for the high on the Nasdaq. Sorry for the error. He also said he expects a 25% correction from the high in the Dow (around 1400 or so for the high in Novemeber, forgot exactly what he said) and S&P 500 then. Personally, I think 3941 is more likely for the high on the Nasdaq in November. I am kidding of course. It seems odd for a mathematical person to give such a precise number when clearly there is tremendous amount of fuzzyness involved (to use one of GWB's words). But as you point, out this may be the standard practice. I like this guy though, and I like the fact that he thinks for himself, and who knows, maybe there is much more to his mathematical approach then we might realize. It would be interesting to know his longer term track record. I would be surprised as well if we got there, but I certainly think it is possible. This is not to say that the Nasdaq would be fairy valued then. I think it would be overvalued quite a bit, even if the tech economy starts coming back then. Maybe if the tech economy comes roaring back it would sort of make sense to be there, hard to make that argument right now though. John