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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: maui_dude who wrote (38484)	5/7/2001 2:34:06 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Maui, <do you (or somebody else) know, Given tualatin's die size, how many .13 fabs would intel need to meet the mobile demand this year (assuming no .13 capacity is used up for p4) ?> It is hard to tell without knowing how many wafer starts are planned. Assuming a good WSW number, 1 fab should be more than sufficient to cover the laptop demand. But this conversion does provide AMD with a good opportunity. One way AMD can really take advantage of the situation is by moving Durons to 1G this Q and to 1.1 and 1.2G in Q3. That way, AMD would have a large sweetspot to sell the desktop processors into. An ideal lineup for Q3 back-to-school season from AMDs perspective could be: P3/Celeron: 700-1100MHz Duron: 900-1200MHz Athlon: 1200-1600 MHz P4: 1500+ MHz That should push P3/Celeron ASPs to well below $100 and Intel wouldn't be able to push P4 prices too low. AMD can sell in the $50-$200 range with great success. I would have thought AMD would be in the above said scenario in Q2 but having watched AMD management's incompetence for the last year, I am not sure such a scenario will come to pass even in Q3. If AMD succeeds, longs may do quite well this year. Chuck

To: maui_dude who wrote (38484)	5/8/2001 4:33:29 AM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 275872

Re: "Given tualatin's die size, how many .13 fabs would intel need to meet the mobile demand this year " Interesting question. Let us assume that Tualatin has a die size of 85 sq. mm.. This would result in complete 314 die/wafer - assuming a 15% loss due to edge effects. At a nominal yield of only 80% (low estimate for an Intel process), Intel should generate 251 GOOD die/wafer - and all should be 1 GHz or greater - or,, VERY LOW power at some reduced speed and lower voltage. With 1000 wafers/week assigned to this - 20% of only one fab's capacity - Intel should be able to produce 251,327 good die/week or roughly 1 million/month. I'd guess that 1 million Tualatins/month should take care of Dell, Compaq, IBM, HP, Gateway , etc. and a few other customers - including Low Power SERVER customers. So - assuming 8 major customers, each of them could count on 125,000 Tualatins/month. And that is only about 1000 wafers/week - or about 20% of one modest fab's output.