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To: kash johal who wrote (38489)	5/7/2001 3:59:48 PM
From: bacchus_ii	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

I have double my PUT on INTC. I still have room to double one more time. I wish me good luck. This year, I have not been very lucky on buying option, made my money selling it. Gottfried

To: kash johal who wrote (38489)	5/7/2001 4:11:15 PM
From: Charles R	Respond to of 275872

Kash, <I think Intel planned on 10M or so PIV's in Q4.> That's my understanding too. <I doubt they can ship that without 0.13.> I think so too but I am not 100% sure. Intel added an enormous amount of 0.18 capacity in the last 12 months and with all the variables involved in P3/P4 wafer starts, it is tough to see what Intel can and cannot do. For example, Intel could build a large P4 die bank in Q2 and Q3. <Even if their yields are awesome the penalty for huge dies size is pretty significant.> I think most reasonable people will agree that P4 dies per wafer will suck until going to 0.13 <Anyhow pretty confusing situation right now.> Agreed. It is tough to estimate what the hard phase shift backup plan will do to Intel's ramp. Chuck

To: kash johal who wrote (38489)	5/7/2001 11:09:22 PM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 275872

Kash, I think Intel planned on 10M or so PIV's in Q4. I doubt they can ship that without 0.13. Intel has been adding capacity, while the unit output has dropped. I don't know the exact unit drop in Q1 but assume 25%. Which means that they are running at 75% (or less) utilization. Now suppose you take 1/3 of the remaining capacity (25M units) and convert it to P4. Suddenly, Intel would be at 100% (or less) capacity, producing P4 share to be 1/3 of Intel total, which is probably 8M units or so. They could do this today Now let's consider .13u Tualatin notebooks. They are new capacity, and overall, notebooks are about 20% of total units, and since AMD market share is pretty much 0%, intel's unit capacity that's going to notebooks is probably 25% of the total (let's use the Q4 total prior to the drop). So to sum up, the Q1 unit sale drop freed 25% of the notebook moving to new .13u capacity will free up additional 25%, and once this happens, (assuming the yields don't drop because of the larger die), Intel can be at 50% P4 desktop capacity now, 100% P4 capacity by the end of the year. This is of course the most optimistic scenario, with some holes, but it is something to consider. There is no shortage of P4s, and there will not be a shortage of P4 (.18u version) this year, unless there is a substantial recovery in the market. Joe