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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (68841)	5/8/2001 10:05:14 AM
From: Ahda	Respond to of 116756

Tuesday May 8, 9:20 am Eastern Time U.S. Productivity Dips in First Quarter By Mark Egan WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The productivity of U.S. workers fell for the first time in six years during the first three months of the year, as unit labor costs grew at the fastest pace in over three years, the government said on Tuesday. The Labor Department said productivity for workers outside the farm sector fell at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the first quarter, well below the 2 percent advance seen during the final three months of last year. Productivity, measuring the amount of goods and services workers produce per hour, is crucial to rising standards of living and has been credited as a vital part of the long-lasting U.S. expansion. It has fallen steadily since hitting a recent peak of a 6.3 percent annual gain during the April to June period of last year. When workers' productivity grows, companies can produce more while holding down costs. Productivity last declined during the first quarter of 1995 when it contracted at a 0.8 percent annual pace. Unit labor costs -- a key gauge of inflation pressures -- soared at a 5.2 percent annual pace in the first quarter of this year, the largest gain since a 5.5 percent advance during the last three months of 1997. The latest non-farm productivity and labor-costs data stood in sharp contrast to economists' expectations. Wall Street economists polled by Reuters had expected a 4.4 percent annual gain in unit labor costs and a 1.2 percent advance in productivity. The bond market took the figures in stride with prices for U.S. Treasuries little changed after the data was released. The sharp rise in unit labor costs and drop in productivity complicates the picture the Federal Reserve will scrutinize when it meets next Tuesday to consider cutting interest rates further to stoke growth in the flagging economy. The powerful central bank has slashed short-term interest rates by two full percentage points since the start of the year to try and reignite slowing growth in the world's richest economy. The Fed had been widely expected to cut interest rates by another half-point at its May 15 meeting -- an expectation that appeared to be little changed by the latest data. ``With labor markets softening and economic activity slowing, I would tend to view any uptick we're experiencing in wages and unit labor costs essentially as a lagging effect of the previous strength in economic activity,'' Anthony Karydakis, senior financial economist at Banc One Capital Markets in Chicago, told Reuters Television. That sentiment was echoed by currency strategist David Durrant of Bank Julius Baer in New York. ``We still have to go with the statement that the Fed made earlier -- that they would fight a recession first, then inflation later,'' Durrant said. ``That is going to continue to be the mantra, and we're still in the 50 basis point (cut) camp for next week's (Fed) meeting.'' Still, subdued inflation pressures has allowed the Fed to be aggressive with monetary policy, and some analysts said the productivity figures would be a cause for concern. ``Productivity growth down 0.1 percent has to be a concern for the Federal Reserve,'' said Bill Quan, director of research at Aubrey G. Lanston and Co. in New York.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (68841)	5/8/2001 11:37:15 AM
From: kirby49	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116756

George: I like the way this is going, kinda slow and methodical. The middle of the W bottom from Mar 1 to 14 roughly, when POG went to 272 was just the wake-up call. I am a little worried about that open gap on 04/04 on the XAU however, care to comment? I also can't believe the predicament AG has got himself into this week. Paradox,confusion all good for POG. He has to justify a 1/2 cut in this overheated rally in the markets because he jumped too soon with the mid-meeting cut. <LOL> Maybe he'll get lucky and the Naz will crash for a week. Has he got an out? So we've had a good month along with the Naz (GBU +73%), which way divergence? Should we tighten stops and take profits and let the major markets and $US blow out. I'd like to but I don't think I want to risk my positions at the next divergence in that senario, when major markets go down and gold back up. Anyone else out there like to comment as well on the importance of that gap. Regards Bob

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (68841)	5/8/2001 12:00:18 PM
From: marek_wojna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116756

<<This threads is incredibly quiet considering how well gold stocks are acting. Apparently very few believe the rally can continue.>> Must be a good reason. Productivity falling while dollar raising, fundamentals for the equities eroding - people more bullish on any bad news, because the worst is over. Gold itself doing nothing except being produced at lower and lower cost. Free markets turning slow into federal market. Everything is cheaper than 20 years ago, thinking about saving money - forget it, if you find yourself in financial difficulty just open that envelope with approved application for GOLD or PLATINUM credit card. In many ways we are achieving ultimate economic communist goals.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (68841)	5/8/2001 12:00:42 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116756

George: I'd appreciate it if you could answer a question. I recently took a gold position for the first time in 5 years, based on a macro perception that gold's time has come. The reversal of trend in the Dow-Gold ratio and the fact that the ratio is at the top of the channel seem persuasive. freeweb.pdq.net. Of course, the question is whether the ratio trend reversal follows the pattern of 1929 with a big win coming soon, or 1966, in which case we may have to wait 'til 2005 for $600 gold. Here's the question. While the recent activity in lease rates seems promising, every time lease rates have spiked since 1996 (http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.html), the POG has kicked up briefly and then resumed the downtrend. Why should this time be different?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (68841)	5/8/2001 1:18:04 PM
From: gold$10k	Respond to of 116756

George, this is a potentially good sign. Also, the XAU and HUI trend lines are still intact and if we forget about the COTs, there is no compelling reason to sell. Besides, if we assume that the POG bottom is in, it doesn't have very far to fall. I just re-bought part of my trading position. vt