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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (76652)	5/8/2001 1:20:19 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 99985

Obviously with 3 neutral blah days in a row there is some basing going on and bears have been unable or unwilling to stage any kind of sell-off. After tomorrow no one's going to be selling or shorting except into a new rally. Given the expectation that the market should be headed down, the short bets are already placed, IMHO. Now it is just a game of hoping the market goes down. Sort of a mirror opposite of the bulls buying the dips. The one important thing to note is that mutual funds are not going to buying for a short term trade. They are going to taking positions for the longer term. Basically, the selling (or shorting) by the traders is being absorbed by the funds on tech stocks. Once the market starts heading up, the stops on various short trades will start getting hit and we should see a short covering rally today. What happens with Cisco if it is worse than expected? My guess is that we get a short covering rally on the news, just like last time. If Cisco is inline or better, the focus will shift to the FED and those that were playing a downturn (even a temporary one) will cover and go long...or if they have already sold, would be taking up new positions ahead of the FED meeting. I am willing the take a short to intermediate term bullish view on the market ...and the longer term..who cares..wait until we get there is my approach <g> For now there is plenty of cash making its way to the market. BTW--wonder if Cisco announces the rumored share buyback. It may be important if earnings or outlook are worse than expected.

To: American Spirit who wrote (76652)	5/8/2001 11:35:53 PM
From: Dave Kiernan	Respond to of 99985

Bears schmears...hope you loaded up on CSCO WCOM and the other darlings...cause they going down..and the pony boys waiting with smiles on their faces. Did you not hear Chambers comments in CC... Europe is just starting to see the start of the decline..or words to that effect.