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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (4311)	5/8/2001 1:18:28 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

ROYL is hot, hot, hot! Only have a third of the shares I had 2 days ago and am done "taking profits" here. Probably should have held but I owned a ridiculously high percentage of the float before this week and the stock is normally pretty illiquid. Will be a buyer on any pullback below 10. Will the energy bears please short it back below 10 for me? ;o) Dabum, unfortunately missed the nuclear debate. Will have to go see if the transcript on CNBC's web site.

To: Tommaso who wrote (4311)	5/8/2001 2:00:02 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Liked your idea about shorting the QQQ's. Decided to do that myself. California should go stage 2 in an hour or so. Just read that yesterday's outage took out part of YHOO via EXDS. Glad I'm shorting EXDS!

To: Tommaso who wrote (4311)	5/8/2001 2:08:04 PM
From: Terry D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

From a smart guy - Folks generally took away from the first-quarter GDP numbers, for example, that the Feds might not have to continue to ease so aggressively. In the wake of a jobs report that showed a fat fall in employment and a chunky increase in the unemployment rate, they're back to thinking what they were thinking before the GDP numbers hit: That, because conditions are looking more recessionary and because the Feds are bound to respond accordingly, aggressive easing is again in the cards. There's a problem, though, a huge, huge problem, with an outlook like that: It goes against what the bond is telling us. When you're faced with a choice between the bond on one hand and anything or anyone else under the sun on the other, you're asking, screaming, and begging for pain by going the non-bond route. ANY non-bond route. Ride stocks until the Fed quits pumping and get out of the bond. Why? The bond has entered a secular bear market, and stocks are too stupid to notice. Stocks are up because employment's down, and bad economic news means the Feds are gonna save us: They'll ease until recession's no longer a threat. No!! The bond says otherwise. Yes, the Feds will cut when they meet later this month. And yes, they might cut again in June. And that's why you ought to keep riding stocks: They're stupid enough to keep rising for as long as there's at least one more rate cut in the cards -- and for as long as the economic news keeps hinting at such. My advice to you is to set up a fundamental short position in the bond -- and leave it there. It's certain to wiggle this way and that a bit, especially in the near term, and its yield might well fall a tad more here. Yet do not doubt that it has spoken. We are in for higher interest rates, for an easing cycle that will ultimately not prove as aggressive as most folks think, and for a tightening cycle that will begin sooner than almost anyone reckons. Concentrate, now, on finding a fundamental economic story that squares with a secular bear market in bonds. Find it, convince yourself of it, and believe.