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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric who wrote (52471)	5/8/2001 1:43:27 PM
From: Ed Forrest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77399

Eric Hi Looks like the Street agrees with your assessment. I also agree that JC will probably say some things that will soothe the jangled nerves of shareholders. What time is the report and call scheduled? Cheers

To: Eric who wrote (52471)	5/8/2001 1:50:18 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77399

Hi Eric - I admire your optimism. But you know it's not shared :) We just came through a bubble. Everyone knows that. What premium did the bubble induce? Maybe 2x actual value? Ok, that sets max bubble-free valuation on CSCO in 2000 of around $40. But back then there was line of sight to growth, earnings going up from a line that was higher than todays, climate healthy, snatching up tasty kibble companies, aggressively growing >60% YoY... Fast forward to today. One of these things is not like the other. Oops... So how can it be worth even $39 (3x13) by YE 2001 unless all of these factors return? And of all that I don't see returning shortly is the free-wheeling capital budgets of the IT organizations CSCO serves. Cripes, almost every company is talking overcapacity, restructuring, even layoffs. That's not an environment in which IT managers get to increase their budget. Or even get to keep the same one as they had last year! Until CSCO's customers emerge from their world of hurt, I can't fathom 3x optimism. Sorry. John.

To: Eric who wrote (52471)	5/8/2001 2:07:39 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77399

A different point of view. observer.com

To: Eric who wrote (52471)	5/8/2001 3:08:18 PM
From: Walk Softly	Respond to of 77399

I doubt very much JC will say anything positive... he's been forthright on how lousy things have been right up until last weeks interview..... quarter was back-end loaded and I doubt anyone made any new orders in front ot quarters end.... on the plus side, seems the market has factored in BAD NEWS.... just how much, remains to be seen.... definitely not in, in front of numbers.... markets wants CSCO to push through them thru current resistance levels.... history and seasonality argues against this.....