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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wes Stevens who wrote (46080)	5/8/2001 2:43:16 PM
From: KevinMark	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 49816

>>>We are a week out and I don't think people will wait too much longer before they start bailing. <<< I'm holding several stocks under $5 as the hi/lo continues to go higher, and trading the big caps. Regarding investors bailing out, I agree that some will, but remember who runs the show. The institutions. They all shorted the market down, and now they will ride it back up for awhile at least. They will buy the dips and continue to hold the shorting at bay. Until the commercials show they are short at a record pace(which their not) I refuse to believe, we will have a melt-down of major proportions. The other day, I posted about the recent commercials on tv by MSDW, Prudential, and USB/Painewebber, and others who are creating demand for their services again. Prudential even went as far as criticizing the way other brokers mislead the public with their strong buy and hold calls, vowing not to practice that way, and to come clean by saying a sell is a sell, vice versa. Remember, these guys need to crank up that IPO machine again, and unless the market goes higher, that ain't gonna happen. Also, I personally know that USB/Painewebber is hiring 200 new sales associates throughout the US, to be up and running within 5 months. IMHO, I don't think these guys would be pouring $$$'s into advertising like this, if they were going to short the market down to new lows. They were buying big time at 1600 as witnessed by the heavy volume. We even had a 3bil share day on the daq, and that hasn't happened since last April, given the fact that so many lost so much. Where did all that volume come from? Historically, 2nd quarter earnings are the lightest of the year, and anal-cysts have now lowered guidance so low for most of these companies for the remainder of the year, they will probably have upside surprises going into the 3rd and 4th quarters of this year. And, with lower interest rates to boot, long bond holders will exit out in droves and continue to pour their profits into equities. I think we could be stuck between 2000-3000 for the remainder of this year going into next year. 1st and 2nd quarter earnings are a sign of things to come in the future, but things will get slightly better, before the real deterioration begins, similar to what happened back in April of 2000. That precipitous plunge of nearly 2000 points in a week's time was a sign to get out at all costs and wait for things to settle. I think things have settled for the short-term and at least the institutions are making investors believe that. They will all make it feel safe to reenter the market for a LTBH strategy, only to short the market down again in the years to come. Good luck with your trades. KM