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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: diana g who wrote (4324)	5/8/2001 2:41:02 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

diana g, Glad to see you join in. I've got you down for 127.0625. I agree on the growing use of NG and the fact demand will increase as the price falls. My big concern is the rate at which NG supply is increasing, and I believe it about to out pace the growing demand. I could be wrong, but the average up cycle last about 18-20 months. This is the average time it takes to over correct a short fall of either NG or oil. This cycle was very unusual since we had an over lapping tight market in both NG and oil during the same cycle. The result is we are now in month 29-30. Most of the drilling has been for NG, and it normally takes 18-20 months for the pendulum to swing back from a shortage to a surplus. I think people will be very surprised on the amount of new supply coming into the market as a result of the prolonged up cycle. We will see over the next several months. Jim