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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stan_hughes who wrote (977)	5/8/2001 5:00:50 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11633

Hi stan, I'm not trying to be overly bearish, I've just experienced trading/investing with 'Rose Coloured Glasses' before and try to look at all sides now. The NG builds are higher than I expected, but more importantly the year over year deficit diminishing is what concerns me. Granted we are in the shoulder season and builds are to be expected but if you take a gander at the following table: highlandenergy.com you will notice that the last build need only be repeated a few times and the Y over Y deficit is gone. I know the summer AC season is soon upon us and hopefully the recent above average temperatures have helped our cause. 'A few weeks of bearish numbers' are all we need to put us in the same position as last year. Couple that with a recession or a cool summer and hedged producers are better positioned. Phew! Having spouted all that: I am also betting longer term with you on the Energy/NG situation. There will be power problems all down the US west coast this year and possibly in the East also. Hydro reservoirs are not fully replenished this year and the expected weather is drier than normal.. Wells are depleting faster and the cost of replenishment is going up. Bush has a new energy program in the works. Many new generators are gas fired only (a mistake but good for NG). Serious consideration is again being given to LNG (requires a price around 4 to 4.50 to pay off ?). You are of course correct about 'the box' in that NG storage will need to considerably surpass last years to meet the 'normal' requirements, 'if we get normal demand'. That is the big variable. Actually another important variable is Canadian storage. Does anyone have any numbers on this ? My largest holdings are by far in energy and lean to the gassy side. GOU.TO, GOU.PR.A, NCF.UN, SGY and a couple of little spec plays. I also agree that if we get a good dip I will also be buying. I would of course prefer to not have to make up lost ground before doing so :0) and it pays to be informed. I am also looking at infrastructure plays wrt to energy for the same reasons. regards Kastel