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Non-Tech : QQQ - Nasdaq 100 Trust -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: striper68 who wrote (547)	5/15/2001 4:23:16 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 840

Bruce - I remember higher PE ratios in 97 and I was concerned about over-optimism. Boy, did I underestimate that strength of the underlying fundamentals then. -MM Thanks for finally getting back to my questions. I was hoping you would address more in depth reasons for choosing why the first half of 2001 appeared to be the correct time to load up on technology stocks and hang on. I imagine the trough is yet to be seen in terms of business conditions for a lot of technology and the recovery is pushed out to next year for most, or maybe the very end of this year. However, the market does begin the discounting process out in front of that recovery. At least the bond market is predicting a much better economy 12 months from now. I guess that means you are torn between the trailing twelve months PE ratios of doughnuts, Vice President's oil stakes, next generation routers and online auctions <gg>: Krispy Kreme = 89 PE [estimated PE of 67 and a PEG of 2.87] Halliburton = 74 PE [estimated PE of 27 and a PEG of .81 ] Juniper Networks = 84 PE [estimated PE of 52 and a PEG of .91] eBay = 222 PE [estimate PE of 106 and a PEG of 2.08] Or snagging some of the other high valuation Nasdaq companies like: Sonus, ONI Systems, Emulex, Brocade, BEA Systems, Ciena, Mercury Interactive, Siebel Systems, IDEC Pharmaceuticals, RF Microdevices, Bruker Daltonics, Urologix, Surmodics, Cephalon, Active Power, Enzon (my favorite with a PSR of 102!!!!!). Moving away from the Nasdaq, there was an interesting article on fair value of the S&P in the 1033 - 1062 range based on a couple of scenarios that I read back in early March that made the case for a buy signal on the S&P being 15% away from 'hitting'. Of course, after that article was written, the S&P did drop to the 1090's intraday on April 4th which appeared to be close enough for many investors (13% drop from the March 9th article) based on historical yield curve comparisons of 1982 and 1991. From that intraday low to yesterday's close, the S&P has had a 14% run. It proved to be a decent entry point provided the FED inches those rates lower to improve the yield curve scenario. marketplayer.com If one hasn't been playing health services, computer services, oil/energy, housing construction, gaming, utilities, etc... in the past few months - not much has really happened. I would tend to agree with you that selective and diverse buying of the best companies to build one's portfolio will eventually pay off provided the scenario unfolds that indeed corporate profits, earnings and revenues will be expanding in 2002. BB