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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (100786)	5/8/2001 10:59:53 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz, and CFZ, if you have a second take a look at the war I am having on the CSCO thread. It's no different than last year. We should all trade using the SI Moronic Indicator. I just wasted 1 hour of my life that I will never see again with those morons. Some of the posts are classic: Message 15774039 Message 15774014 Message 15773815

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (100786)	5/8/2001 11:56:48 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

nikkei taking out 14000.... btw- be sure and listen to the NSM call... HO HO.. bye bye march bottom... all clowns get whacked... LOL

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (100786)	5/9/2001 12:55:59 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

For those who do the e-wave thing, it appears Nikkei may have wrapped up a three-wave countertrend move off the March bottom. Time to retest the lows. BC

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (100786)	5/9/2001 1:58:33 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Newsletter editors all jumping aboard this rally. My favorite line: "If the stock market did reach an enduring low in late March and early April, it would be the first time such a trough was recognized almost immediately by the majority of newsletter editors." Full text: chron.com May 6, 2001, 10:10PM As markets spring up, contrarians see a fall Approach is as much art as science By MARK HULBERT New York Times The bear market is not over, despite the impressive market gains of April, when the Nasdaq composite surged nearly 27 percent. That is the current argument of many contrarian analysts, who try to time the market by interpreting investor psychology. They call the April gain a bear-market rally, and they say we have yet to see the kinds of behavior that historically have been the hallmarks of major market bottoms. This psychological perspective is called contrarian analysis, because the market typically does what is contrary to the beliefs of the majority of investors. In other words, bull markets like to climb a wall of worry; they near their end when the vast majority of investors have overcome their skepticism and jumped aboard. By contrast, bear markets thrive when the prevailing mood is hope, and do not end until dejection and despair displace it. To be sure, contrarian analysis is as much art as science. No single barometer can tell exactly what the average investor is thinking and feeling. And even though the market typically frustrates the majority, there is no guarantee that it will always do so. Nevertheless, one gauge has proved as good as any over the years in judging investor psychology: the market sentiment of investment newsletter editors. They are extremely sensitive to changes in how the wind is blowing -- and are not above changing their tunes accordingly. If greed rather than fear is predominant among investors, for example, then a significant number of newsletter editors will start catering to that greed, even if they personally are worried about the risks. These days, the consensus among such editors is quite cheerful, based on a review of the market outlooks of the 160 or so newsletters monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest. During April, the editors of these newsletters were incredibly quick as a group to return to the bullish camp. But from a contrarian point of view, that is a bearish sign. Consider the average recommended equity exposure among a particularly hyperactive group of these editors -- those who update their advice daily by Internet or telephone hot lines -- and who shift much or all of their portfolio into or out of equities when they change their minds. Their exposure to stocks is now 51 percent, up from just 2 percent as recently as April 4. The increase was even sharper among newsletters that focus on timing the Nasdaq composite. The average exposure among that group is now 21 percent, up more than 100 percentage points from an April 10 reading of minus 85 percent. (The negative reading reflected heavy exposure to the short side of the Nasdaq market.) The recent behavior of newsletter editors stands in stark contrast to what they did after previous major bear-market bottoms. They reacted with disbelief, for example, when the market rallied off what turned out to be the market low in December 1974. Instead of quickly becoming bullish, the typical newsletter editor believed the rally to be a bear-market trap. As a result, these editors therefore helped form the wall of worry that was the foundation for an incredible bull market. The editors' recent actions are more reminiscent of what they did, on average, after bear-market rallies throughout 1973 and 1974. In the wake of each such rally, many editors were quick to declare that the bear market was over. They were seduced into increasing their equity exposure just in time for the bear market to resume. After successive losses, these editors finally threw in the towel, declaring in effect that a rally would never again sway them into believing that a bull market had begun. That turned out to be the final low. To put the contrarian argument more succinctly: If the stock market did reach an enduring low in late March and early April, it would be the first time such a trough was recognized almost immediately by the majority of newsletter editors. Do you really want to be making that bet? BC

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (100786)	5/9/2001 2:05:12 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Got liquidity trap? Borrowing declines despite continued falling interest rates: quote.bloomberg.com 05/07 16:06 U.S. Economy: March Consumer Borrowing Rose $6.2 Bln (Update2) By Vincent Del Giudice Washington, May 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer credit increased in March at the slowest pace in almost 1 1/2 years as people reduced their credit card use and demand declined for car loans and other borrowing, Federal Reserve statistics showed. The increase of $6.2 billion for the month followed a rise of $13.4 billion in February, according to the Fed's report. Credit rose at a 4.7 percent annual rate in March after rising at a 10.3 percent pace a month earlier. With businesses eliminating jobs and confidence waning, consumer spending and borrowing are cooling. ``It feels pretty lousy out there,'' said Charles Van Vleet, director of global fixed income at Credit Suisse Asset Management in New York. Auto and other personal loans fell $455 million in March, the first decline since April 2000, after rising $2.4 billion during February. Revolving loans, which include credit cards, rose $6.6 billion in March after rising $11 billion. The pace of borrowing in March was the slowest since a 4.7 percent rate in October 1999, the Fed's figures showed. For the first quarter, consumer credit grew at a 9.3 percent annual rate. That compares with a 8.7 percent pace in the prior three months. Economists monitor the Fed's report as one gauge of consumer demand. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the economy. While the statistics include credit card debt as well as loans for autos and mobile homes, the numbers don't include home equity loans or other debt secured by real estate. Falling interest rates have led to an increase in home refinancing, saving consumers money on interest payments. In the week ended March 23, mortgage refinancing rose to the highest level since October 1998, according to Mortgage Bankers Association of America. Ten Years Ago Consumer credit may be slowing as it did ten years ago when the economy was recovering from its last recession, analysts said. Growth in consumer credit peaked in 1989 when the unemployment rate reached a low of 5 percent, said David Greenlaw, an economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. Then, ``as the jobless rate began to drift higher, the pace of credit expansion slowed sharply,'' he said. By 1992, when unemployment had risen to almost 8 percent, the pace of borrowing was already falling. The economy grew at a 2 percent annual rate in the first three months of this year, double the pace in the fourth quarter, which was the slowest in 5 1/2 years, according to Commerce Department statistics. With employers eliminating jobs and consumer confidence at a 4 1/2-year low, spending was sluggish at the end of the first quarter. Retail sales fell 0.2 percent in March after no change a month earlier, the Commerce Department said. Automobile industry figures showed auto sales ran at an annual rate of 17.1 million units in March, down from 17.5 million in February. Unemployment Rises The U.S. economy lost more jobs in April than at any time in the last decade and the unemployment rate rose to the highest in 2 1/2 years, the Labor Department said Friday. Payrolls plunged 223,000 after falling by 53,000 a month earlier. An index measuring consumer confidence in the U.S. economy fell in April to 109.2, the sixth decline in seven months, from 116.9 in March. The April reading matched February's, the lowest since October 1996. A decline in optimism helped push auto sales lower in April. Sales of automobiles dropped 10 percent, led by declines of 16 percent or more at General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG, as incentives failed to overcome consumers' worries about a slowing economy. For some consumers, financial fractures are starting to show. MBNA Corp., the largest independent credit card company, reported that its first-quarter delinquency rate increased to 4.6 percent from 4.35 percent of loans a year earlier. The Wilmington, Delaware-based lender, nonetheless, saw its first-quarter profit rise 33 percent as falling interest rates lowered costs. BC