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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sully- who wrote (36741)	5/10/2001 11:23:26 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Poll: Consumer Confidence Steadies Sentiment stabilized, but is near its lowest level since May 1997, says a new ABCNEWS/ Money poll. Thursday May 10 09:52 AM EDT By ABCNEWS.com ________________________________________________________ <<Consumer views about the economy steadied this week after last week's steep drop, but nonetheless are at their worst in nearly four years. Most troublesome is a downward trend in Americans' ratings of their personal finances, a measure that had been holding steady as other indicators declined. While 60 percent still rate their finances positively, that's down six points in the past five weeks. Fifty-three percent say the economy is in good shape, a number that dropped precipitously earlier this year and remains 18 points below its level in early January. And just 39 percent call it a good time to buy things, down 15 points since September, possibly due to rising fuel prices. The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index, based on these views, stands at +1 on its scale of +100 to -100, down from +23 at the start of the year and its lowest since May 25, 1997. The index has taken four sharp drops this year, most recently last week. The ABC/Money index declined seven points in one week in January, tying the one-week record. It fell six points in one week in February, five points in a week in March and another five points last week. It's down 11 points since March and down 22 points from the start of the year. The index peaked at +38 in January 2000. While it's down sharply this year, all three gauges are still well above their levels at the beginning of the last recession. Consumer confidence was the single best predictor of that recession. A Closer Look As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans: The index is +25 in higher-income households compared to -28 in the lowest, +16 among college graduates while -25 among high-school dropouts, +6 among whites but -28 among blacks and +13 among men while -9 among women. Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Money index: NATIONAL ECONOMY — Fifty-three percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, the same as last week. The best was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992. PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, down two points from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998, and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993. BUYING CLIMATE — Thirty-nine percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, up one point from week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990. Methodology The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,027 interviews in the period ending May 6 and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa. The ABC/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by 3. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.>>