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Non-Tech : EARNINGS REPORTING - surprises, misses & more -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 2MAR$ who wrote (616)	5/9/2001 11:49:40 PM
From: Volsi Mimir	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 762

Beware Forecasts (and CSCO) economist.com Which is precisely what many Wall Street analysts have predicted in recent years, pointing in justification to such blessings as freer markets and the technological transformation of the “new economy”. Indeed, despite the deluge of disappointing profits news pouring out of companies so far this year, analysts continue to forecast spectacular long-term profits growth. At the end of March, the average forecast for firms tracked by IBES was of annual profits growth of 19.8% over the coming 3-5 years, barely down from the peak forecast last year of 20.2%. One erstwhile stockmarket darling, Cisco Systems, is still forecast to average 30% annual profits growth during this period. How plausible are such forecasts? Not very, at least if the past is any guide, concludes a new study by Louis Chan, Jason Karceski and Josef Lakonishok*. They analysed the performance of all active American public companies in 1951-97, and found that the growth now forecast by analysts is way above historic norms. At only one firm in ten did profits grow by 18% or more per year over any ten-year period. Maybe fundamental economic changes will allow faster growth in future. But, strikingly, the study found no evidence that median long-term profits growth rates have increased in recent years—when those changes presumably started to take effect. Nor is there evidence that analysts are any good at forecasting profits growth. Data on their forecasts for firms in the IBES sample have been available only since 1982. In 1982-98, the median forecast annual growth rate for any 3-5 year period was 14.5%. The median growth rate actually delivered was only 9%.

To: 2MAR$ who wrote (616)	5/14/2001 7:24:22 PM
From: 2MAR$	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 762

AETH ($16 -$13)loss widens, beats estimates (UPDATE: Adds more details) OWINGS MILLS, Md., May 8 (Reuters) - Wireless data products and services provider Aether Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:AETH - news) on Tuesday reported a five-fold increase in first-quarter losses, but this beat analysts' expectations as revenues surged by an even greater percentage. ADVERTISEMENT The company reported a first-quarter operating loss of $46.8 million, or $1.16 a share, compared with a loss of $8.6 million, or 29 cents a year ago, excluding special items. Analysts on average had expected Aether to report a loss of $1.25, with estimates ranging from a loss of 78 cents to $1.37, according to Thomson Financial/First Call. Aether said special items included non-cash impairment charges of $959.4 million to write down goodwill associated with acquisitions in fiscal 2000. An $88.8 million non-cash charge was taken to write down other company investments. ``By absorbing a series of significant one-time charges related to acquisitions and investments made in 2000, we are able to move forward with a clean slate,'' Aether Chairman and Chief Executive Dave Oros said in a news release. Revenues rose to $30.7 million from $5.4 million a year ago, helped by strong growth in subscriber revenue and software products revenue. Aether said in April it expected revenues of $30 million for the first-quarter. Subscriber revenue rose to $10.4 million from $2.8 million a year ago, engineering services revenue rose to $2.4 million from $1.4 million and software product revenue grew to $11.8 million from $1.1 million. Device sales, a new category for Aether, rose to $6.1 million from $100,000 a year ago. ``With revenues at an all-time high and more and more companies in diverse industries turning to Aether for wireless solutions, we remain extremely upbeat about our position in the marketplace,'' Oros said. Aether warned last month that it was on track to meet financial targets for the first half of the year, but growth in the second half would be disappointing due to the slowing economy. Oros said in the news release that Aether is continuing to focus on integration, controlled spending and efficient operations in order to be cash flow positive by the third quarter of next year. Shares of Aether closed down $1.03, or 5.73 percent at $16.95 on Nasdaq prior to the earnings release. The stock has underperformed the Standard & Poor's 500 index by 86 percent over the past year.