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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (51585)	5/9/2001 7:28:35 PM
From: Gary105	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

whats your take on Bob Morrow interview on NBR? nbr.com (go to market monitor section). As summary he expects market to peak in November. S&P at 1876, DOW at 14770 and Nas at 3943. He says he may trim numbers a bit as he missed last years highs by 7%. His work is based on cycle analysis. He claims this will be the peak, expecting corrections of 25% for dow and s&p from these peaks and Nas correction of 38-50% from these peaks. I could rationalize both GZs predictions and Morrows predictions on the following premise/scenario: 1. The market cant chew and walk at the same time. It reacts to simple scenarios. 2. If we have positive scenario (such as second half recovery) it may overreact to upside reinflating the bubble. 3. This could be followed by nasty correction once reality (recovery but with modest, not tremendous earnings) sets in. Comments welcome.