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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (76729)	5/9/2001 9:42:23 PM
From: TWICK	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

You keep saying that, and we keep seeing more bad news and more layoffs. The more layoffs, the worse it's gonna get. You can't put a bullish spin on that. Twick

To: American Spirit who wrote (76729)	5/9/2001 9:42:32 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 99985

A.S. The most important factor is still the slightly positive news out of tech companies...ITWO, EMC were pretty good afterhours. That trend has to continue for the market to have a sustainable rally. It is conceivable that the risk of June quarter profit warnings is now very slim..as many have taken a very conservative approach to guidance..just as ITWO admitted. They don't want it changed. Therefore, we get earnings surprises next quarter.<g> That will be strange. Of course they will be way off compared to June 2000 quarter but I am expecting the focus to shift to sequential performance, and actual vs expectations for June. What does low profit warnings mean to the June quarter earnings (assuming that unfolds as I expect); buying by traders a little ahead of usual patterns OR even possibly a lack of selling into the traditional news vacuum period that we are in. This time, there appears to be less of a news vacuum than a usual May/June period. We keep getting lots of comments from tech CEOs. Much will depend on comments from tech companies and the economic numbers. A stable or rising market may be able to help the economy in the short term. It sure will help consumer confidence sooner or later. The comments of firming budgets by major corporations for tech purchases is a positive (that could be the one factor that tips the scales for the bull case). At least the case can be made for a short to intermediate term gain in tech stocks.