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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (46518)	5/10/2001 12:02:56 AM
From: advocatedevil	Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, I like your thought process. With only 7 weeks left, I'm going to have to buy at the open! <g> BTW, heres a snip from an article I ran across this evening which you might find interesting: ...Today’s bear market, if it endures, will certainly test the enthusiasm for this new-found equity culture. Indeed, one apparently perverse reason for welcoming the arrival of a bear market is that it will remind investors of the main reason why equities have offered better returns: because they are riskier. As the hackneyed phrase from the brochures, usually in small print, has it: “Shares can go down as well as up.” If shares only ever went up, the long-run returns from investing in them would inevitably fall to match their lower risk... From the article "The rise and the fall" - Economist.com Link: economist.com AdvocateDevil

To: Gottfried who wrote (46518)	5/10/2001 10:04:45 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

RE: "Buy by August." Since they're not giving a date for August, better buy by August 1st. Since everyone knows this, better buy early in July. Since others are no dummies, they'll do the same, so better buy before June ends. That gives about 7 weeks to buy. Actually an efficient market theorist, knowing the mantra, would buy this week Actually, some of us bought the sector in December when AMAT announced it was cutting hours. I saw that as the first sign of layoffs and it seems in the past that the time to buy is when they cut staff. So far, unless this is a bear rally, it seems I got it right on this round. EVERYONE was looking over the valley even back then... All KNEW that the stocks would eventually recover so I am starting to believe this is what kept the price up... Most/many of us probably keep major long positions and try to add a bit of value trading around them. I bet we were not alone. I don't think AMAT will hit old Price/Sales ratios unless most think the company is dead meat for many years... Stocks like LRCX hit fat pitch levels in Dec with 0.5ish PEGs (I use 5 yr forward growth rates and forward earnings to get a forward PEG) but AMAT held up much better as it usually does as more follow it. It will be interesting to see how far this rally goes... what is a "low Pole Reversal"? stockcharts.com answer: stockcharts.com Kirk