To: heronwater who wrote (21849 ) 5/10/2001 12:50:54 AM From: velociraptor_ Respond to True, and retail and small business make up quite a chunk of the economy, yet there is no real measure of this other than word of mouth. Your local hardware store is not going to put out a press release stating they are missing earnings or have to let some people go. However, the corporate world has already been giving the signs and most are choosing to ignore this. 400,000 countable people laid off in the last few months is SIGNIFICANT. The fact that earnings have fallen off so much that the cumulative Nasdaq P/E is about as high as when the index was at 5000 is SIGNIFICANT. Another 300 points on the index and PEG ratios will also be higher than when the index was at 5000. A V shaped recovery would require that sales start to increase again quickly. But, as Softie has stated about defunct dot-coms and such, WHO are they going to sell to? With many people going out of work, WHO are they going to sell to? With gas prices rocketing, WHO is going to buy large cars or travel more? Even a U shaped recovery woul require a gradual improvement and that is not even showing up as things continue to get worse. CSCO writes-off 2 billion dollars of inventory and still has almost 2 billion worth which is growing. Without write-offs, they report their first loss in many years. And this is a huge company. If they are suffering, no doubt anyone smaller or in a related business is as well.
