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To: mishedlo who wrote (101147)	5/10/2001 1:25:46 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Want to know why the CSCO rally failed at 20. Well here it is in black and white. quote.cboe.com Look at the open interest in CSCO strike 20 calls. It is in the best interest of someome to make sure it does not close above 20. Thus it will not. My guess is 17.5 at options expiry. Time to start thinking about max pain IMHO. I have some picks in mind and I want to be on the right side of pain. We had amazing rallies above and beyond pain last month but unfortunately most stocks are only nominally above pain now. Still if they do fall to pain, that would be a great gain on puts for most of them. IBM if the most above pain that has a chance, pain at 105. MSFT pain is at 60. That is an impossible drop (or seems to be). Is it? I remember QCOM at 44 with pain at 65 thinking no chance in hll. Well I was totally wrong. For CSCO and MSFT to drop to pain we will take one hll of a tumble in a short time. CSCO pain is 15 but looking at the options chain I think 17 1/2 is more reasonable. PUTs at 20 for the person thinking in advance would have been a great play. Look at EMC. Above pain, overbought and is just now bouncing the 13DMA off the 50DMA. All indicators suggest failure. With pain at 35 there is probably not that much room to drop. but 5 points is a great % in puts. Funny how well this all correlates with Zeev's turnips. We are not that far above pain on most stocks (thus the tight range?). Therefore a drop to pain (1850 on the Naz would about do it I think). Followed by rally back to 2200 followed by the retest of the lows this summer. Is this what is in the cards? I should have paid more attention to pain last 2 months. Well at least this month my PUTs are on the right side of it now. M