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To: kodiak_bull who wrote (4427)	5/10/2001 10:26:06 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 23153

Have you ever deleted a post here? Not that I'm aware of. Your post was well written. Hope Roebear takes it to heart. I really liked his weather analysis posts.

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (4427)	5/10/2001 10:56:13 AM
From: JungleInvestor	Respond to of 23153

Nice post, kodiak! More info on Dr. E from Dan Wilson (VPI board): jims101: Dr. E by: danwilson_Yorkshire 05/10/01 10:07 am EDT Msg: 19633 of 19635 I'll admit I was also surprised by Dr. E's forecast of $15/mcf but he actually had it on a slide as part of the formal presentation. He said $20/mcf would not surprise him saying that last winter was "a walk in the park" compared to what we may see in the U.S. the next two winters. Let me remind everyone: The last time I saw Dr. E live in Houston was 11/5/2000. At the time NG was trading for about $4.50 and he predicted it would go over $10/mcf by the end of January. Everyone in the room just smiled politely at his prediction but no one took it too seriously. 60 days later we all saw NG trading at over $10 on the NYMEX. Last winter the U.S. got bailed out by: 1. No serious hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico. 2. Excess distilate available in the Northeast allowed fuel switching early. 3. Canadian NG storage that was dumped into the U.S. 4. Mild weather in January and February. 5. We started last winter with 2.7 TCF in storage (Dr. E doesn't think we can reach this level this year because even normal summers on both coasts will drain NG supply for power generation.) I agree that $15/mcf seems a little "out there" but we are going to make a ton of money on the Sweet 16 if NG gets back to $10 and that my friend has been done before. BTW it was done before from a lot higher level of storage from where we sit today. Here's a DWY SWAG: We'll see NG at $8/mcf in August when the storage level is still below last year's level and the first hurricane enters the GOM.

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (4427)	5/10/2001 8:47:15 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

kodiak_bull, I am rather bullish on gold and have been for a month or so, in the sense I am not trading but mostly holding. Last week I expected a XAU pullback larger than we actually received. That is a good thing and a timing departure from the last few years. Next week will be a difficult week, there are many market forces coming together which will effect the gold stocks, rate cuts, BOE sales, etc. So it will be a week to watch, though I am at least intermediate term bullish, pullbacks and stairsteps are to be expected. Thanks for the opportunity to post my opinion here on HTP. I did not intend insult by implying that you would have the post deleted, but rather that I have seen that done on other threads and did not know how it would be received here. In any case, no offense intended. Best, Roebear