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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (69023)	5/10/2001 11:16:28 AM
From: long-gone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116898

<<BTW, should not Goldman Sachs and the other bullion banks be required to disclose that they are hugely short when they issue reports. >> Fully agree!

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (69023)	5/11/2001 10:00:01 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 116898

"Intuitively" I want to sell this rally so bad, it must go higher.... My "intuition" is a proven contrarian signal... -ggg- Actually, I often act on it in a contrarian way - committing more money to gold stocks

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (69023)	5/11/2001 11:09:45 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116898

Hi George, remember what we communicated about such a short time ago ... Soon ... means anything from end of year to 24-36 months later, but my bet is end of year announcement on exactly what soon means. I can visualize it now, the hanky panky, smuggling, hoarding, mania, frenzy, and abandonment of all hard paper currency for bedding stuffing purpose. Chugs, Jay chinaonline.com China relinquishes control of gold to open market (9 May 2001) The government is about to relax its grip on gold. Buying and selling gold, in practically any form, has been the exclusive prerogative of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). The current central control of all gold transactions will be replaced with an open market system. The plan is likely to be approved by the State Council soon, reports the May 8 Xinwen Chenbao (Shanghai Morning Post). After the announcement of the plan, industry experts in Shanghai noted that abolishing the system of centralized control would mean that private companies and individuals would be able to buy and sell the precious metal. Liu Shanen, deputy-director of the Beijing Municipal Gold Economic Development Research Center, predicted that opening the gold market would provide more versatility for the various functions of gold. The price will gradually align with the global market and will fluctuate in step with the international gold market. The price fluctuations in gold purchases or buybacks will allow gold to have investment value, and will offer consumers a whole new investment vehicle, the story said.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (69023)	5/13/2001 12:20:39 AM
From: waverider	Respond to of 116898

George, I want to congratulate you on properly predicting this current run in gold (on Steve's Channeling thread I think). You mentioned several weeks ago about how it was setting up and how the indicators you watch were about as bullish as they could get. Got the following from the Prudent Bear fund update on Friday. Note the last section on gold. What is your take on their viewpoint (I edited out the first section)? <H> by Lance Lewis Bonds Break, Stocks Stumble <snip> Oil rose 3 cents. The XOI and OSX both slipped a percent. Gold fell $1.20, and lease rates were quiet again. The HUI slipped 2 percent but remained above yesterday’s lows. The BOE auction is next Tuesday morning, and that will be the next big test for gold. In the past when the metal has rallied into the BOE auction, it has tanked on the results and vice versa. So, we’ll see if anything changes this time or not. The US dollar index rallied a touch again and is now closing in on its 118 high back in March. The zero slipped back below 88 cents. Data out this morning in Europe made the ECB’s move yesterday look a little silly. The CPI equivalent in France and Germany showed the annual inflation rate accelerating to 2 and 2.9 percent, respectively. Treasuries were clubbed with the 10yr getting beat for more than point as yield rose to 5.48%. From a chart hugger perspective, we could see 6% in short order, and it looks like we may want to sell off right into the Fed meeting. With Uncle Al, the printer, cutting rates as fast as he can, gold starting to awaken, and energy prices still on fire, the bond market is understandably spooked about inflation. As we discussed before, I continue to believe that we saw a major low in yields in Q1. The April PPI showed a .3 percent rise after a .1 percent decline in March on the back of moves up in the stuff we all use every day like food and energy. So, as we go into the FOMC next week we’ve got the bond market starting to get into trouble, the gold shares and the metal getting some interest, and stocks looking extremely tired. That’s not exactly a bullish recipe. Anybody thinking that Uncle Al and the Fed took a look at today’s stronger data and is now reconsidering their current aggressive easing course that they’re on is dreaming, I think. The Fed has made it very clear that they’re going to keep cutting, and that inflation is not a concern. So, we’ll probably get our 50 bp chaser on Tuesday to follow up the BOE's and ECB’s 25 bp cuts this week, and we’ll see what people can do with it. I doubt they can do much as this rally looks to be showing the early signs of falling apart. I’d start strapping in Tuesday morning if I were you. Once the initial reaction to the cut is over and done with, we could hit some air pockets on the downside…

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (69023)	5/14/2001 12:27:12 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116898

In the land of financial and monetary policy, money creation always comes back to haunt the creators. Internal U.S. prices are already climbing at annual rates of 3.3% as a spill-over of the inflation of the U.S. quantities of money. That could come right around and hit the U.S. economy in the back of the neck as additional quantities of new money hit consumer goods. Greenspan's real problem here is that today, the general public mistakenly thinks of inflation as nothing but climbing prices of consumer goods. Further, both corporate and Treasury bond markets hate the rising price effects of monetary inflation. Why do they hate it? Take a bond with a maturity of five years, the principal being returned to the lender at the end of those five years. With rising prices, the purchasing power of that principal will have been grossly eroded. Look at what happens to a five-year bond with an issue value (principal) of $US 1 million. Now, build in consumer prices which are climbing by 10% each year for the five years. After the first year, the $1 million face value of the bond will only buy $909,090 worth of goods. After the second year, that same $1 million will only buy $826,446, after the third year, it will only buy $751,315, after the fourth year $683,014 - and after the fifth year when the bond matures - it will buy $620,922. This happens because after one year of prices climbing by 10%, it takes $1.1 million to buy what the $1 million used to buy. After two years, it takes $1.21 million, after three it takes $1,331 million, after four it takes $1.464 million, and after the fifth, it takes $1.612 million. One could calculate this as $1 million divided by $1.612 million. The result would still arrive as demonstrated that the original $1 million now only buys $620,100. Looking at it in either direction, the purchasing power of the $1 million has been depreciated by the five year price inflation. The only way that bond holders can defend themselves against this, and the way that they always do it, is to sell the old bonds and demand a higher interest rate on any new bonds that they buy. There is one final effect in the classical inflation sequence - CURRENCY RISK. The Inflation Risk to the U.S. Dollar is coming. Got Gold? Got Guns? Got Guts?