To: Brian Sullivan who wrote (165283 ) 5/10/2001 7:05:56 PM From: rudedog Respond to of 176387 Bian - RAMBUS is a "special case" - they started out on the premise that aligning the industry around a unified standard for high bandwidth memory would make long term compatibility easier - a fairly big deal for server customers, for example - and everyone knew that some kind of advanced methods would be needed as CPU speeds were increasing way faster than memory speeds. Unfortunately, RAMBUS technology turned out to be expensive and the early implementations were buggy. As volumes grow, it may get to something like cost parity with other technologies. But the slow ramp left RAMBUS with a problem - how to stay in business with a revenue stream that was much smaller than projected. They turned from a technology company into a litigation monster intent on getting money from a wide range of memory producers, not just those using RAMBUS patents. And some of the evidence suggests that this may have been their plan all along. One company who seems to have been taken for a ride is Intel, and some recent fairly negative comments from Intel executives show that Intel is not happy about the posture of the new RAMBUS. With the collapse of their first major test case on non-RAMBUS patents, they may just disappear all together which would be a good thing IMO. As far as long term memory contracts at DELL, the approach has always been a balancing act between long term contracts, short term contracts and spot market buys. When Memory prices are declining, the bias is to short term contracts, to take advantage of those price declines, so they try and set the long term level to assure supply for base production - almost a kind of hedge. If they end up short even with short term contracts, they go to the spot market. If they end up with an oversupply, they sell on the spot market. This strategy works very well in a market which is growing with memory prices falling. It is less attractive in a growing market if RAM prices spike up, which is what induced DELL to do more long term contracts in fall of 1999. If the market itself is declining, then both spot purchases and short term contracts fall out. But even though the market may be declining in revenue terms, it is growing both in units and in memory per unit, so they are probably in pretty good shape overall. I don't know what the mix around RDRAM versus other technologies is, but since P4 sales are below projections, I would suspect they are not in as good a position there, but I don't have any data to support that, just gut feel.