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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Freep who wrote (76803)	5/10/2001 7:53:03 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 99985

Oddly, TrimTabs, who tracks inflows, turned "cautiously bearish" the other day after being "cautiously bullish." What does that mean? Why'd they say that? I dunno. . . do you? First of all. Trimtabs basically runs a liquidity tracking hedge fund. In 1999, they did about 70% or so..can't remember exact number. That is not exceptional given these guys had the data on fund flows before Biederman would tell Maria (cnbc). Their cautious or bullish stance depends upon what Charles Biederman is doing with his fund. Obviously, he was cautious last week but remember this fund changes directions driven by liquidity. The fund flows I looked at showed a lot of money coming in the last 30 days. Trimtabs factors in a lot of information before getting bullish or bearish FOR THAT PARTICULAR WEEK. Stock buybacks, Cash takeovers, IPOs etc... The other factor to remember is that mutual funds decide when to buy with their cash levels. Don't get me wrong. . . you might be onto something. But trying to explain every single move, up or down, with a neat synopsis doesn't make sense to me. The selloff could be because tech earnings, while seeming to stabilize, are stabilizing in such a way that PEs are still much higher than growth rates. . . and suddenly people realized this. This is really not much different than looking at charts to determine direction. I am just presenting my case or the possibilities using what I believe is reasonable assumptions..Of course I could be way off. I am trying to make a prediction for the next week and up to about July. There's always explanations galore. And your scenario implies that only the Naz traders have figured this out, but not those who deal with the Dow or even the S+P 500, as those both were green. Actually, the Wilshire total market index didn't show your explanation, either. Good Point. There just may be a move away from technology stocks. So far, all the commentary I have been seeing is a shift into tech and financials...all these people could be lying. The good thing about tech stocks is that they are heavily shorted so that if there is some bad news with a company, the downside protection is now there unlike what used to happen about 1 year ago. Many large funds are underweighted tech unlike a 1 year ago. These are significant positives for the sector even if the fundamentals are not good near term. All IMHO of course. Much easier to get a handle on monthly or even weekly moves than it is for daily changes in the market. You are right; maybe I am going overboard in trying to rationalize every move on the market. I am going to try to take a longer term approach...on market direction such as one week or longer. Best of luck with your trading.