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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (76836)	5/11/2001 9:32:23 AM
From: majaman1978	Respond to of 99985

Not my post but this is exactly what might play out here... IF the fed cuts the rate by 50 basis points next week (95% likely)....what is left for the future......MAYBE AND I STRESS MAYBE one more rate cut, probably .25% ....my point is this... after this cut there are going to be a lot of powerful people with a great deal of money saying to themselves "THIS IS IT, NO MORE CUTS" AND THATS GOING TO BE A GIGANTIC NEGATIVE FOR THE MARKETS....WHETHER THIS HAPPENS AFTER "THIS" CUT OR THE NEXT (IF THERE IS 1 MORE)....remember the market always anticipates the future.....and whether you wish to be realistic or not.....the future is looking fairly dismal......the dow is probably overpriced by AT LEAST 3,000 points and the nasdaq by at least 1,000 points....people buy stocks for earnings, earnings, earnings....and NO ONE HAS ANY DECENT EARNINGS....NO ONE !!!!! BOTTOM LINE IS THIS WE WILL SEE A RETEST OF THE LOWS AT A MINIMUM IN THE GENERAL MARKETS....MAYBE NOT THE ENERGY MARKETS BUT MY GUESS IS WE HAVENT SEEN THE BOTTOM YET IN THE DOW,S&P OR NASDAQ YET !!! THE ------>GOVT<------ CAN CHATTER AWAY ABOUT HOW THEY ARE GOING TO HELP US, LOWER ENERGY COSTS,TAX REFUNDS, ETC ETC ETC.....BUT YOU BETTER HAVE A LOT (A LOT) OF DRY POWDER...

To: Boplicity who wrote (76836)	5/11/2001 10:06:29 AM
From: t2	Respond to of 99985

Did anyone really expect the consumer confidence numbers to be worse than expected? They were better than consensus. A lot of the confidence probably came from FED's surprise cut and the recent market rally. That explains why we are getting selling on this news...at least the initial response was being set up that way. It did not surprise anyone. It also explains why the Nasdaq did not rally big ahead of the 10am release. Shorts are not nervous,IMHO.