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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (90809)	5/11/2001 3:15:50 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Right now E&P stocks, Precious metal stocks, cash & some euro bond funds, shorts and puts on semiconductors & short on one credit card company, Providian (PVN) Cut back my Euro positons today - that may be a longer term play, or I may exit all together. The euro zone is slowing down. If you count my Euro bond positons as cash, I've been 20-45% cash the past month. I'm sort of waiting for the overall market to peak, then get close to net short, likely using long term puts. My view is that we are in a LONG, multi-year bear market, which will see a bunch of correction, churning and rotation. I'm not sure that semis will be the next group to drop - they may hold up all summer. I think they will look REALLY BAD in fall - around October-November - when the 4th quarter recovery isn't happening. Don't know when this shoe will drop, however. I think consumer & credit card stocks could be the next sector to crash. I'm holding precious metal - NEM,HM, PAAS,SIL, and FN.TO - I expect it to gyrate. Oil & Gas STOCKS may benefit from a major rotation, even as actual commodity prices peak & maybe drop. Oil & Gas may become as fashionable as tech was (well, not quite). I would love to get part of this ride. I'm also ready to dump these stocks if the ride is over. SO outside of E&P stocks, I'm pretty defensive. Even in E&P, I would tend to pick value oriented stocks like OXY (which I have) or LOILY (don't have yet) This seem to be a choppier market, which needs good trading skills - I do better in a slightly slower moving, more directional market. (Translation : inadequate trading skills) Mostly I'm waiting - For something like Semis to run up even more (like SOX 700) to make a nice short For Oil & Gas to go way up (so I can sell) or way down (so I can buy) For gold to evenutally go to >$350 or more Wish I had some brilliant market insight.... Best of Luck