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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (7402)	5/11/2001 11:23:35 PM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 52237

Sven... Thanks for the note. It's tough to say here, one thing I do know is that the Commercial net long gold position in the COT's is smaller again this week by 2572 contracts, and it's rapidly approaching the levels it was at during the mid march top in the HUI... stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyymy[dc][pb50!b200!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9!Lh5,5!Li5,5] On 3/13/01 the commercial position in the COT's was 13,665, right now it's at 17247 and it's been falling dramatically for the last 4 weeks down from 57990 on 4/10/01. What's even more interesting is the net long position in the small speculators positions is growing each week, and these traders are notoriously WRONG. FWIW the small speculators position long position is rapidly approaching the #s of the March top as well. I realize the gold train can pull away fast, but I sincerely doubt it will pull out without the conductor onboard... ie. the commercial traders. When I see the commercials reverse direction long in a big way, the way they did in early april, Then I'll jump. Again if the train leaves without me, ces't la vie. There will always be other opps. I think it's going to take some more time to really put the inflation fears in perspective, and scare the public into gold. Inv H/S measures to around 75 give or take... the question is will it be a V bottom or a longer term base. Long bear markets usually have long bases. But this is a great start<gg> stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyymy[df][pb50!b200!a55!a75!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9] Have a great weekend, JM

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (7402)	5/12/2001 6:05:43 PM
From: NucTrader	Respond to of 52237

>>I'd like to see gold shares pull back<< Maybe you'll get your chance.....from Crystal Ball Forum >>Category: Technical Talk From: insiidetrack (Eric Hadik) To: ALL Date Posted: May 11, 2001 at 15:58:49 Subject: Stock Pullback, Gold Trend Reversal Please pardon my extended absence (not that anyone even noticed). The markets - and other business - have kept me preoccupied since my March 21st post. At that time, I discussed the convergence of cycles on March 20-21st and why a rebound in the stock indices was imminent. The question then was whether the DJIA would hold its intra-month support and only give a 1-3 week rebound or immediately spike down to its Major downside objective of 9000--9380 and begin a larger upward correction. It only took one additional day - when the DJIA spiked to 9106 on March 22nd - to answer this question. Though my purpose is not to give a '20/20 hindsight' review, please indulge me for another minute while I build a small foundation for some current thoughts... Since that time, analysis has focused on the potential for a rally into May 4/7th. (The DJIA's attainment of its major support altered the cycle outlook and spurred a late-March forecast for a sharp rally, decline AND rally into May 4/7th, instead of just a rally and decline.) The DJIA just peaked on May 7th, consistent with this cycle. However, there are reasons to believe that this was not the final peak in this advance. The S+P reversed its weekly trend to up, which is an indication that a pullback will be followed by another advance. The DJIA & Nasdaq 100 have not confirmed this signal but the outlook still calls for a drop into May 15-17th and then another (perhaps final) surge into late-May. To keep this relatively brief (or have I already exceeded the criteria for that?), the details for this analysis will be saved for another post (and/or are readily available in the Weekly Re-Lay, including projected lows for this correction). The more important analysis has to do with Gold... For the first time since mid-1999 (which accompanied an $80.00+/11 week surge in Gold), the neglected yellow metal has just reversed its weekly trend to up. For those unfamiliar with my trend work, this is NOT a signal to immediately buy but is rather a signal that the next pullback should provide an excellent entry for longs. Very often the reversal of this trend coincides with the extreme of an Elliott '1st' wave and confirms that the larger trend has changed so the next reaction should NOT be considered the resumption of the old trend. In other words, the signal comes at the same time as the first peak off an important low and signals that the next decline should stop short of setting new lows. Then the fun (also known as the dynamic '3 of 3 wave') begins! In the May INSIIDE Track, I detailed why the weeks of May 14--25th should provide a critical turning point. This is likely to usher in a new - and final - low in Silver while potentially providing a higher low in Gold. Among other cycles and timing indicators, a Silver low between May 21--25th will complete a perfect 43-week decline/43-week rally (total of 86 weeks high - high)/86-week decline cycle progression. Perhaps more importantly, it coincides (within 1-2 weeks) with when the Dollar should see a second top and begin a sharp decline (into the week of March 18--22, 2002) and when the stock indices have the potential to see at least an intermediate peak. There are several indicators that still need to kick in to confirm this overall scenario but it appears as though a 'Dollar-weakness'-led Gold rally should soon take hold. I will update specifics in the Weekly Re-Lay and post them as time permits. (As in the past, we offer a free 3-week trial to the Weekly Re-Lay for anyone that has not received one in the past 2 months. E-mail us to request it.) Gold already bottomed during key cycles in early April and the long-term analysis has repeatedly stated that it should see a large advance in the second half of 2001. Cycle expectations are for this surge to continue into April 2002. So, if Silver can spike to new lows - and potentially test important intra-year support at 413.5 (basis front futures contract) - and Gold can hold above its recent lows, the stage will be set. The short-term might be precarious for Gold but the outlook from June into the end of the year looks relatively healthy. The biggest gains are likely to be later this year, but some impressive opportunities could be just around the bend. I will update this in the coming days/weeks... Eric Hadik INSIIDE Track Trading