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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (557)	5/11/2001 8:33:52 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 95757

Scott, re >this time is different< This phrase is about the only thing that's been constant - and wrong.<g> Regards Gottfried

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (557)	5/12/2001 10:40:32 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95757

To me it does not matter if this time is different. It does not matter if I have already missed the bottom. What matters to me is can I enter one or more of these stocks at a price that will greatly reduce my risk if I hold long term. None of these stocks has reached levels that match the trough seen during previous cycles. I find that troubling. Yes the FED is cutting aggressively but where in technology do we find any industries that are now improving fundamentally? www2.barchart.com It seems to me that these stocks may be overextended. Internet and Telecom companies are announcing bankruptcies on a near daily basis. The flow of money has dried up for companies wishing to either go public or make secondary offers in the market. The consumer is in the driver's seat. Will the consumer be able to turn this economy around with the cash the FED has been infusing into the economy? Perhaps, but that consumer in the driver's seat is driving a car that might be repossessed if he loses his job. In addition even if job security is sound gas alone is costing more than what many fear filled consumers might be willing to pay. This could cause the economy to slow further if travel and recreational spending also dry up this summer. Lets say I am wrong and we do not get anymore substantial selling in the semi caps. Does it really matter? I don't think so because there are more than 300 semiconductor related companies that might offer me the same rate of return as any semi equipment company if bought at a decent entry point. I do like your pick KLIC because it could offer more bang for the buck than other stocks in this industry at these prices. It has not appreciated as much as many of the other stocks. The semi equipment stocks are considered an early indicator of where the semiconductor industry is headed. If the industry is to expand then semiconductor companies have to be ordering new equipment in order to ramp up. My question at this time is simply have these stocks appreciated too quickly because in past cycles these stocks run first during a recovery? Exactly what evidence do we have that we really have a recovery? If I am going to buy a stock like KLIC then I will do it at a decent entry point. If I can't I will buy another stock. RtS