I would like to thank everyone who responded to the previous model. Using this input and other new information encountered, I have made several changes. Overall, the end results remain relatively unchanged:
FY 2002: ($.17) loss with break-even operations late
FY 2003: $0.11 gain with profitable operations
FY 2004: $1.13 gain with rapid revenue growth
FY 2005: $3.90 gain with outstanding revenues
Now, the model's three biggest factors that influence earnings per share are:
1. CPM rates for new video and traditional banner ads
2. Distribution costs per GB of bandwidth
3. Percentage of syndication network watching iNEXTV
Of course, in order to continue funding the full syndication effort through 2002, we need to sell ADS for at least $40 million or arrange for other financing that reaches this amount.
* * *
Streaming Cost Factors 2002
Global Syndication Network Size 117,689,000
Percent that Stream Video 26.00%
Percent Watching iNEXTV 6.50%
Percent Streaming Daily 8.50%
Average Daily Streams 1.75
Total Daily Streams 295,855
Broadband Percent 40%
Narrowband Percent 60%
Avg Stream Duration (mins) 3.25
Bandwidth Cost/GB $15.00
Bandwidth Cost/MB $0.015
Broadband Cost
Avg Broadcast Time/Day (sec) 23,076,724
Encode Rate (Kbps) 163,840
Load/Day (KB) 461,534,478
Load/Day (MB) 450,717
Load/Day (GB) 440.15
Cost per Stream $0.057
Distribution Cost/Day $6,761
Distribution Cost Monthly $205,640
Distribution Cost Quarterly $616,919
Distribution Cost Annually $2,467,677
Narrowband Cost
Avg Broadcast Time/Day (sec) 34,615,086
Encode Rate (Kbps) 40,960
Load/Day (KB) 173,075,429
Load/Day (MB) 169,019
Load/Day (GB) 165.06
Cost per Stream $0.014
Distribution Cost/Day $2,535
Distribution Cost Monthly $77,115
Distribution Cost Quarterly $231,345
Distribution Cost Annually $925,379
Total Bandwidth Cost
Cost per Stream $0.071
Total Distribution Cost/Day $9,296
Total Distribution Cost/Month $282,755
Total Distribution Cost/Quarter $848,264
Total Distribution Cost/Year $3,393,056
Streaming Revenue Factors 2002
Broadband Rev/1000 Views $55.00
Narrowband Rev/1000 Views $45.00
Total Daily Broadband Rev $16,272
Total Daily Narrowband Rev $13,313
Total Daily Revenue $29,586
iNEXTV Revenue Percent 75%
iNEXTV Daily Revenue $22,189
iNEXTV Net Revenue/Stream $0.075
iNEXTV Monthly Revenue $674,920
iNEXTV Quarterly Revenue $2,024,761
iNEXTV Annual Revenue $8,099,043
iNEXTV Net Revenue/Stream $0.004
iNEXTV Net Revenue/Day $12,893
iNEXTV Net Monthly Revenue $392,166
iNEXTV Net Quarterly Revenue $1,176,497
iNEXTV Net Annual Revenue $4,705,987
Syndication Network Population
MSN ISP 61,371,000
Juno ISP 7,481,000
Qwest ISP 500,000
Compuserve ISP 1,100,000
Total ISP Size 70,452,000
Yahoo Portal 58,820,000
Yahoo Cross-traffic Size 41,207,000
Others (Smaller/Vertical Sites) 9,000,000
Others Cross-traffic Size 6,030,000
Total Population (Unique Viewers) 117,689,000
Balance Sheet Forecast 2002
Royalty Revenue $12,000,000
iNEXTV Net Revenue $4,705,987
Total Revenues $16,705,987
ADS-Sale Cash - 25% Debt Repay $30,000,000
Total Liquid Assets $46,705,987
Patent Service and R&D Costs ($1,502,000)
Content Production Costs ($9,698,944)
Selling & Admin Costs ($12,000,000)
Debt Service Costs - 25% Repaid ($3,937,500)
Total Costs ($27,138,444)
Income/Loss ($10,432,457)
Net Liquid Assets $19,567,543
Shares Outstanding $59,699,224
Profit/Loss Per Share ($0.175)
ADS Sale Amount $40,000,000 |
