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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: majaman1978 who wrote (76887)	5/12/2001 8:47:37 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

But I hope he still cuts and it leads to massive inflation, because this is the theory I'm betting on. Are you kidding? If the dollar remains strong, there is no chance of any inflation. Import prices will continue to decline. Since so much focus is on energy costs, one can bet there will be a solution this year...the same way we had a Y2K crisis that disappeared so fast. The dollar does not appear to weakening at all. It is actually getting stronger; that is a lot of protection against inflation; as is the recent job losses in high tech.

To: majaman1978 who wrote (76887)	5/12/2001 9:10:02 AM
From: 10K a day	Respond to of 99985

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To: majaman1978 who wrote (76887)	5/12/2001 9:32:34 AM
From: AC Flyer	Respond to of 99985

Well said, Mark! I think that your scenario is likely. There's no reason for the FOMC to further cut the discount rate on May 15th, but they will (my guess is 25 bp). After that, no more cuts, but inflation is now baked in the cake. The evidence is clear in the recent action in T-Bond rates, the POG and the XAU. We get a big summer rally driven by Fed-induced liquidity followed by discount rate increases in the fall and another leg down in the bear market. It'll be worse this time around because higher interest rates will dampen real estate activity and the bubble in residential real estate prices will finally burst. All imho. BTW, this thread has (mostly) regained its balance and utility for me since I put AS and NV on ignore. They have the distinction of being the only two individuals I have placed there since joining SI.