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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kirk © who wrote (561)5/12/2001 2:38:37 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95953
 
Kirk,

<Would it be hard to add a column for Price/Sales? Sales numbers are every quarter so you would only need update manually every 3 months. I have a research report from MSDW they gave last month that shows charts of Price/Sales for the top 6 companies in the sector and they gave their buy levels based on the troughs for this graph. It was interesting to see how they worked it in that they released the report last month, the stocks they identified (LRCX was one) corrected into their buy zones, then the stocks recovered THEN they issued a public upgrade! >

Let me look at the best way to do as you suggest. I have kept some price to sales and price to book data in the past, but I have not been rigorous in keeping the data up-to-date.

The PE/G numbers have been rising very fast lately. Over the past years I have been keeping the data on a weekly basis, the "G" number does not change very much as a function of time, but lately, PE is increasing rapidly for 2 reasons. One, the price of the stock has been going up(40+percent for the group since December) and second, the earnings have been going down(On 11/30/00, the price bottom for the group, this year's earnings for the group was 47.01 and next year's earnings was 57.72. This past week, this year's earnings have dropped to 16.17 and next year's earnings have dropped to 26.14.) This behavior in group stock prices and earnings estimates have had a "sky rocketing" effect on the PE/G numbers. I don't know how much further this is going to go on!

Don



To: Kirk © who wrote (561)5/12/2001 6:01:08 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Respond to of 95953
 
Price/Sales is generally not very useful with semi-equips. During the down cycle, forward sales and earnings are falling rapidly and the eventual end point is a guess. During the up cycle, earnings are more valuable than sales because all have earnings and both sales and order growth and profitability are important in determining the price.