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To: Susan G who wrote (76914)	5/12/2001 4:05:38 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Energy Industry Raises Production at a Record Pace Susan, That is a great article. That is basically in line with what I was talking in my comparison to the Y2K fear. It creates an urgency to either make bigger profits if a company is a solution OR it is a race to protect profits. The quote below from that article tells the story; that is where the parrallel to Y2K fears lies. There is no doubt we will see an energy bust as Mr. Seiple states below. With no incentives from Washington, power companies have responded readily to higher prices. They are now finishing work on power plants that will add 92,000 megawatts to the nation's capacity by next year, enough to power 90 million homes. That's more than they built in the last decade — and enough that Mr. Seiple predicts a new bust will follow the current boom I cannot see Oil at great than $12 by next year at this time. My reasoning is not just this race to build. It is also based upon the self preservation motives that will become very important to OPEC. With high oil prices, the incentive to drill in many countries increases like the US. A solution from OPEC's point of view is to increase supplies that such drilling projects are put on hold. However, the greatest danger to OPEC is the possibility that the high cost of oil will speed up the development of alternative fuel sources. We can already see it in many new cars...hybrids are getting more and more popularity. Therefore, we end up with stimulas of the economy with low energy prices after this rush to solve the energy problem is over. Basically the reverse of what happened with Y2k. The economist Ed Yardeni predicted a recession around Y2K but later admitted he was wrong. I believe he just got his timing wrong...maybe we don't hit a recession this time but high energy costs are putting us closer. OPEC is a bunch of "clowns" that does not what realize what a self destructive path they are taking by cutting back on supplies to keep this 22 to 28 price per barrel range. They may only find out only when it is too late. However, there is a chance that the Saudi's (biggest producer) understands the dangers of maintaining high prices just based upon the odd comments . They have a lot at risk. The current bottlenecks in refineries is a temporary problem, IMHO. The free market system will clear it up pretty quick. If nuclear energy gets wider acceptance, the entire fossil fuel industry may just become fossils.<g> Hydrogen fuel cells will probably put an end to all of the destructive energy sources. That is why I like the idea of having higher oil prices for a while longer; so that increased R and D into alternative sources is more justified.

To: Susan G who wrote (76914)	5/13/2001 11:31:23 AM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The energy industry is setting up the classic boom bust cycle. You don't buy stocks in sectors that are building plants and factories left and right. You buy stocks in sector that are experiencing the worse possible conditions but have an inherent potential that will be realized once the conditions that caused the problem are resolved and then wait for the rest of the less aware investors to get it. Basic 101 investing! B

To: Susan G who wrote (76914)	5/13/2001 11:48:11 AM
From: eichler	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Susan, Thanks for sharing that article. Much like the Tech Boom to Bust and the Telecom buildout and blowup(industry burdened with extensive debt for equipment becoming fast obsolete) , the article you posted warns of the same dramatic heavy duty investment going on in the energy sector which at some point should saturate with increased supply and competition, thereby initiating the bust part of the cycle we are sure to see eventually. The "when" is still the key. It will surely take some time yet with the current energy shortages prevailing, but I agree with NV's and Boplicity's assertions that the bust is sure to come...someday. Thanks again for that interesting article. Regards, Eichler