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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gongoman who wrote (33509)	5/12/2001 6:34:27 PM
From: FLACK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

OT - boilnoil/gongoman re: Black Jack The Ace-Five count This count system will achieve a small edge over the house. Realistically, there will only be a couple of times each hour when this count will achieve this advantage. But, that’s usually enough to add to your winnings, and thus, your enjoyment. With this count system you will stand a 1-out-of-20 (5%) chance of losing 300 units. You will also stand a 19-out-of-20 chance of winning 300 units before you lose 300 units. Premise behind this system: The FIVE is the most important card for the dealer because the dealer must hit “stiffs” (12 thru 16) and a hit with a FIVE gives the dealer a “pat” hand of 17 through 21. Conversely, the ACE is the card of greatest value to the player since it constitutes the framework for a Blackjack. Assuming the cards are evenly distributed, it is to the player’s advantage when the deck is unduly depleted of FIVES. When the deck is unduly low in ACES (called Ace Poor), it’s the house who has the advantage. The Ace-Five count reflects these conditions and signals the player to bet accordingly. Counting: Count +1 for every five seen Count -1 for every ace seen ABOVE ALL - and this is soooo obvious that I almost feel embarrassed saying it - THE COUNT IS DONE IN YOUR HEAD! DON’T MOVE YOUR LIPS! Card counters get asked to leave. As the cards are dealt, you will keep a “running” count, starting at zero and adding “1” to your count for every FIVE seen (dealt) and subtracting “1” from your count for each ACE seen. So, for example, on the first hand dealt, you see two FIVES come out and no ACES. Your running count is now 2 (you now have a “plus” situation). Right away the house is at a small disadvantage because the dealer has two fewer FIVES that he can draw to keep him from busting on a “stiff”. In this situation you can now increase the size of your next bet - more on bet size later. Let’s assume that on the first hand you see no FIVES or ACES. Your running count remains at zero. Now suppose you see two ACES come out on the first hand and no FIVES. Your running count is MINUS 2. (most counters say to themselves “my two”. indicating (and shortening the verbiage) a negative count. When you have ANY zero or minus (negative) count, you next bet will be the table minimum. You are at a mathematical disadvantage and you will bet accordingly. You only raise your bet size when you have a plus count and a mathematical advantage! Remember, whenever the deck is “plus”, it will tend to favor the player (more FIVES have been played). When the deck is “minus” (your running count is negative), the deck will tend to favor the house (more ACES have been played than FIVES). Count your own hand first, then the dealers up card (if he has a FIVE or ACE showing). Next, count each card as you see it turned up. Naturally, this is best done in single-deck or double-deck games. Counting like this in six-deck games is basically a waste of time, but then, playing a six-deck game is ALWAYS a waste of time. Deviations from Basic Strategy: Assuming you have COMPLETELY mastered the Basic Strategy - if you haven’t you should just mail a check to your favorite casino, stay home and clean out the gutters - there are a few times when the count will signal you to deviate from the Basic Strategy. These deviations are CRITICAL and will add to your advantage. Remember, this is a game of mathematical probabilities and a counting system alerts you to the probabilities. While a counting system cannot guarantee that the cards will fall your way, it can (not unlike market indicators!) guide your next move. Okay, the deviations from Basic Strategy are as follows: Any time you have a “plus” count you will 1. Stand with 12 vs. dealer 2 or 3 (ordinarily you would Hit) 2. Stand with 15 or 16 vs. dealer 9 or 10 (ordinarily you would Hit) 3. Split 2’s vs. dealer 2 (ordinarily you would NOT split) 4. Split 3’s vs. dealer 2 or 3 (ordinarily you would NOT split) There are a couple more deviations, but these four are enough - in fact, numbers One and Two are the most important deviations. Betting: Nevada Betting - Single Deck * Bet 2 units “off the top” and whenever the count is “0”. (A unit is the table minimum and “off the top” means at the beginning of the game - the first hand.) * Bet 3 units when the deck (count) is Plus 1 * Bet 4 units when the deck is Plus 2 * Bet 5 units when the deck is Plus 3 * Bet 6 units when the deck is Plus 4 and LESS THAN 30 cards have been dealt Note: The sooner the fives disappear from the deck, the greater the odds that the dealer will bust when hitting a stiff. AND DON’T FORGET TO MAKE THE DEVIATION PLAYS! Nevada Betting - Two Decks (or if you absolutely must play a six deck game because you can’t find a single or double deck game) * Bet unit “off the top” and whenever the count is “0” or less (minus) * Bet 2 units when the deck is Plus 1 to Plus 2 * Bet 3 units when the deck is Plus 3 to Plus 4 * Bet 4 units when the deck is Plus 5 and LESS THAN 30 cards have been dealt Note: The sooner the fives disappear from the deck, the greater the odds that the dealer will bust when hitting a stiff. AND DON’T FORGET TO MAKE THE DEVIATION PLAYS! Practice: This counting strategy is quite simple to learn but does require some practice. Get out a deck of cards - no jokers. Turn the cards face up and pass them individually from one hand to the other. Each time you see a FIVE, add 1 to your count. Each time you see an ACE, subtract 1 from your count. After a few minutes, you’ll be able to recognize the “value” of the fives and aces. Now try a “running” count. Go through the deck and start adding and subtracting as you see the fives and aces. Don’t forget the ZERO level which you must pass through - suppose you see an ACE first, your count is “my 1” (minus 1). Now you see two FIVES and your count is Plus 1. Then you see an ACE, and your count is back to zero. At the end of the deck your count will again be zero. The next step is to do this same procedure by tossing TWO cards on the table and counting. Do this until you can count the deck perfectly each time. Then do this with THREE cards - three is the average number of cards in each player’s hand. Now, without looking at the cards, toss three cards face up to your right, three face up in front of you and three face up to your left as if these were hands of various players. Now quickly scan each hand beginning on your right and do a running count. Speed is important but accuracy is more important. Do this last exercise for a few days and you’ll on your way to gaining an edge over the casino.