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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris who wrote (7412)	5/13/2001 12:30:13 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 52237

A few things that are bugging me. The SPX, OEX etc have retraced 62% of the last drop so they have fulfilled thier fib bounces and reached the bullish side of that bounce but what would be the next target? The NDX and NASDAQ have bounced to the 38% fib number and remain on the bearish side as far as fib bounces go. What would be the target if we were to bounce? I show heavy resistance still around the 2100 NDX level and 2275ish on the NASDAQ. Scanning through folders, the small forgotten stocks have been the ones doing the best. The Chemical sector, engineering, Defense, food services etc. The Biotechs, Drugs, etc have mostly gone flat for the last 6 months and are range bound. Almost every chart I looked at as I was updating things has us over bought or on a hard sell signal as far as the weeklies go. On the dailies, the last few down days we had helped to ease some of that pressure and the NDX has a short term over sold so we could pop there. Still with so many weekly signals saying down, I am very hesitant to be looking upwards. Everyone that I read is looking at the Fed meeting and ignoring the earnings next week. In case anyone missed missed it in my earlier post, Bloomberg has AMAT, NTAP, QLGC, BRCD, BEAS , HD, and WMT all reporting on the 15th, the same day as the rate cut. Of course this can push things either way. What is the scariest thing is the market could rally on a rate cut then get bad news from any of these after the close and whipsaw the heck out of everyone. Despite my having all these weekly signals, as I have mentioned before, a negated signal on my system is actually bullish so we could be on the verge of a breakout but as many have said, FA really doesn't support it at this time. In case anyone missed it, McNeely who is the CEO of SUNW last week said that anyone that says they see the bottom here in the business cycle is basically nuts and he asked if they claim to have visability now, how come none of them saw the "cliff" last year before they fell off? That pretty much says it all in my book. DRAM prices are still dropping, Book to Bill is still horrible, we have pricing wars going on in PC land and 3G rollouts for cell phones has been put on hold everywhere. I just don't see much to drive tech up. I went to HD last night and then the mall. I got a parking spot right in front the door at HD which I have never been able to do since the day I got here 5 years ago and though it was fairly busy, I noticed there weren't many loaded to the brim carts like usual, nor were there many "big project" type looking purchases. Mostly conservative replacement doors, minor hardware etc. The gardening section was the most busy portion. Now I will say I usually go on Saturdays and instead went on a Friday last night so maybe everyone was tired from work and was staying home. I also went to Staples, and it was empty except for myself and 2 other couples. The mall was mostly people walking around with very few bags in their hands so it looked mostly like kids hanging out on a Friday night and parents window shopping but not buying. I will probably put on a straddle of some sort on Monday or Tuesday and then won't bet hard either way on top of that until Wednesday after the earnings and the rate cut are all factored in and I can see the reaction. After HWP on Wednesday, CIEN's report on Thursday and the CPI, I don't know of too many other major announcements coming so we may be in a news blackout for a couple weeks. I just don't see much in the way of upside targets here and a whole lot that says that the odds are for more down. As I said, the techs have some room for a bounce but I just don't see a breakout at this time although as tightly coiled as we are, anything can happen. With McNeely saying what he did though, could it be more than a bear trap? Good Luck, Lee