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To: XBrit who wrote (101840)	5/13/2001 4:20:09 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 436258

Good article, Julius, though they did focus entirely on the NazDung and conveniently (for their argument) ignored the Dow, the SPX, the NYA, etc. Nonetheless, a good read. This part was the guts of it, IMO: Imagine living through the early 1930s and hearing the perpetual optimism spewing out of Wall Street. You would have NEVER been told to sell, only that things were looking up and the stock market was doing great. Look at each major bear market rally (in blue) and pretend you can't see everything to the right of it on the graph. Imagine you are living through those markets at each volatility top, and realize that Wall Street would tell you that the bottom was definitely in each time a bear market rally roared forth. Note that virtually every sharp sell-off of the DJIA was marked with an interim volatility top. As markets move asymmetrically, volatility is typically much more pronounced on the downside. Stated another way, fear is a much, much stronger emotion than greed. Markets fall much faster than they rise. When fear takes hold, markets plummet like a massive steel anchor cast over the side of a modern supertanker. After each sharp bear market rally, which ALL looked promising at the time, there was a major sell-off to new lows and the volatility tops continued to climb with each successive sell-off. It was not until the fourth and highest volatility top that a true final bottom in the DJIA had been reached. The initial volatility top and the final "number 4" volatility top after the bottom together marked the signature "double volatility top" of major bear markets following a bubble burst. Finally in this graph, please note the big yellow arrow. This arrow marks the spot from the first graph of this essay where the NASDAQ is right now in our NASDAQ 2000/DJIA 1929 comparison. If the 2000 NASDAQ bust continues to mirror the classic 1929 DJIA bust, we have a LOT more downside to go until an ultimate bottom is reached. I'm in their camp, for now. If they're right, we should see higher highs in the VIX and lower lows in all the major averages (perhaps more than once) before we're done. The obvious time horizon for these eventual moves would be the second half of this year and the first half of next, as that would be the point where this absurd "second half" recovery garbage will be irrefutably exposed. But as we've long speculated, before it's over EVERYTHING will be thrown at the market to keep the bubble afloat. Unfortunately, bursting bubbles tend to be impervious to intervention. "Interesting times", to be sure...

To: XBrit who wrote (101840)	5/13/2001 9:10:57 AM
From: At_The_Ask	Respond to of 436258

This is my favorite part "And there is far more evidence that the NASDAQ bottom is nowhere to be seen and the ever-wily bear is simply waiting in the woods like a wraith, a bloodlust in his cold, terrifying eyes, as he patiently watches more bulls get lulled into complacency. The bear will strike when bullish sentiment reaches a crescendo, and the bulls will be mutilated by the sharp bear claws and the wailing and gnashing of teeth will be great on the next major leg down."