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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (15751)	5/13/2001 11:11:58 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev, Have you made any revisions in that scenario? Specifically, do you see the rate cut being bought or sold? Perhaps a different answer as to whether or not it is .25 or .5. Also, normally you have a time frame, this time you seem to be sticking with index targets as opposed to turnips saying something to the effect (I expect this period or time frame to be weak). I have no idea how you do it but we bounced about 2 points from one of your weaker targets that you do expect to fail on subsequent retests. Also any thoughts on the amt? Fed fund futures seem to be pricing in something between 1/2 and 1/2 (at least that is my understanding). What a tough week to predict, options expiry and Fed Rate reduction in same week (this time planned). M

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (15751)	5/13/2001 12:30:25 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 30051

Agree that overvaluation does not by itself mean prices will fall. But it points to risks that perhaps are greater than many think. BTW, the fact that this bear market in the S&P 500 never reached significantly undervalued levels and only remained modestly undervalued for a week or two strongly suggests that we have not made the final bottom yet. .

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (15751)	5/13/2001 3:30:01 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev, would you believe 70% overvaluation? we had according to that standard overvaluations in the 50% range before yardeni.com I would not be surprised to see the S&P 500 bottom out next fall at 20% "undervaluation".

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (15751)	5/13/2001 10:55:59 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 30051

I guess my biggest unknown about the SPX is not if it will go down, but how far before it bounces. 1187 seems the most likely bounce point, and I believe 1155 and 1102 are pretty strong resistance points also on the way down (Those are from memory, so I may be off a point or two). I believe I've read the cycle guy saying 1187, with a bounce to 1300. It seems certainly plausible, but a re-test of 1102 would seem necessary before a permanent bull move up. Maybe the SPX is also following the inverted W, but at a little different timetable.