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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (76979)	5/14/2001 2:49:00 AM
From: Berney	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Actually, it would be difficult to talk down to you! If you would read the Intelligent Investor, you would realize that Graham was, in fact, the father of TA. It is all about asset allocation. There are times to be in and there are times not to be in the Market. Frankly, my little Phleet is mostly in retirement plans, so I cannot be short or leveraged. As some of us TA types recognize you may, without any ability on your part, be right. The Market is coiled, the Fed is dumping liquidity in here not seen since the fourth quarter of 1999, and the Market is going to explode in one direction or the other. I was delighted that AG cut rates in April. I was very, very long in QQQ, and the position looked like I was about to take a blood bath. His action let move to cash and I am very appreciative. The secret to a Bear environment is to stay away from the down trend line. Once the down trend line moves below you, it may well be some time before you see it again. Look, I'm a FA dude at heart; accountants are probably genetically moved in that direction. Further, I'm a long term Bull. A staggering sum is going to be moved in the next ten or so years from the Depression children to the next generation, and I really do not believe that they are going to be satisfied to keep this money in CD's. However, I believe that the PE is only valuable in comparison to something else - specifically the prospective growth rate. To believe that MSFT is a good value when next year's increase in EPS is, at the average, 4.5% is ridiculous. I believe we only differ on timing. Frankly, my research shows that the place to be is in the Big Boyz. However, I believe the time to buy them is when the Market kills them, and I'm just not sure that we are there yet. I will emphasize that I'm not sure. That's what makes us different. Certainly there is absolutely nothing in the leading indicators that would make one want to rush and buy. So, who is on a high horse. I would only suggest that the jury is still out we have yet to turn the corner from an FA perspective. Further, from a TA perspective, until the DJIA closes above 11K, the SnP above 1270, and the NDX above 1900 (in unison), this is just noise, and, I would suggest, down is a long way! When you get back from your vacation, I think we will be able to revisit this issue. Berney