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To: Ilaine who wrote (101967)	5/14/2001 11:38:06 AM
From: flatsville	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Both-- Real from the transmission end (which you could argue was manufactured over time beginning in 1992 when companies chose not to maintain their infrastructure) and manufactured when traders, brokers and some utility generators took advantage of insufficient conditions for competitive market. From what I've read power generation for the CA market was adequate for the past couple of years. Transmission bottleneckss on the north and south ends of the state created the problem when in-state plants would go down and they couldn't draw from other locations in-state or out-of- state. Generation will truly be a problem this summer throughout the West due to the drought and inability of hydro to sell any excess because they simply don't have any.

To: Ilaine who wrote (101967)	5/14/2001 12:02:17 PM
From: Don Lloyd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

CB - The word 'shortage' is meaningless unless it is associated with a price. It would take a surprisingly small increase in retail prices, especially if concentrated on peak usage, to drive the system into short term supply/demand balance without adding a watt of generating or transmission capacity. Longer term, the presence of political risk will likely prevent any market-based solution from being feasible until the power grid becomes economically obsolete in the face of local generation technological solutions, assuming that they are not in their turn smothered by government attention. Regards, Don