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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (53001)	5/14/2001 1:15:14 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Respond to of 77400

Ok, now that we're back on home territory: should we invest or not. The question is not "will this product cover the planet" (because the same could be said about grass seed), but "is the price of this investment lower than it's risk weighted discounted future value" I am glad you have invited the discussion to turn here. We can both agree that internet technology is likely to cover the planet like grass. And dispense with entertaining discussion of that nature... except for entertainment purposes. Perhaps instead we should explore the three main questions central to investment: (a) the future value of the enterprise, in dollar terms (and "why") (b) the risks facing the enterprise in achieving that future value, an estimated alternative value if these risks materialize, and their relative weighting (total 100%) (c) a reasonable discount rate From which we could then extrapolate a fair current price and determine "yes, I will invest at this price". Any discussion which does not terminate at least on one of these three points is likely to be tangential. John