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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (102147)	5/14/2001 6:30:28 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

oh how i adore this type of sentiment.... Message 15798524

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (102147)	5/14/2001 6:46:20 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Message 15798261 all aboard the train bound for hell or heaven? -g-

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (102147)	5/14/2001 11:42:28 PM
From: 200ma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz, what are your sentiments on NG? I am long two gas & oil explorers: SWN and CRK because I believe that good earnings will hold for multiple quarters if not a multiple year boom in the energy industry here is an interesting article I found on the yahoo board concerning NG this summer, it seems that demand will be strong The summer of 2001 will be remembered as a time when the characteristics of natural gas demand change forever. With estimates of as much as 40,000 megawatts of new power generation coming online this summer -- with almost all of it fueled by natural gas -- the summer months will become almost as taxing on natural gas supplies as the winter heating months. "Our numbers show that during peak electric demand periods additional consumption could be 5 to 10 billion cubic-feet per day (Bcf/d) higher this summer than last," says Raymond James director of energy research Marshall Adkins, a member of the TSC Energy Roundtable. "This changes the current market from 5 Bcf/d excess gas to as much as a 5 Bcf/d shortfall in the heat of summer." That means current storage levels and projections might meet the summer demand for natural gas, but could leave storage dangerously low going into the traditionally strong winter heating months, pushing commodity prices back into range of Barone's estimate. But wait. The frenzy of increased exploration and production should help offset the demand from power generators at some point this year. After all, the number of rigs drilling for gas has increased by more than 50% since last year, and the rush to bring gas to market must ease the supply crunch. So far, that hasn't happened. A recent survey by Merrill Lynch analyst John Herrlin shows gas production is barely growing. "[N]atural gas output was up 0.4% from [the first quarter of 2000] and only up 0.9% from [the fourth quarter]," he notes in the survey findings. And he thinks the anemic trend will continue. Domestic production companies "at best, can collectively grow input by 1%-1.5% with high rates of activity, and that sustained output level requires above historic average rig counts," he notes. "2%-3% production growth forecasts by the Street are simply wrong or won't be sustained on a multiyear basis." That leads Herrlin to this conclusion: "Gas isn't dead, nor are the E&P stocks." So how do you play the almost certain resurgence in gas prices? First, Jim Cramer's suggestion of Halliburton (HAL:NYSE - news) and Schlumberger (SLB:NYSE - news) makes sense from the energy-services side. They are large-cap, diversified services companies that have their fingers in almost every aspect of the energy biz. In the exploration and production space, look to companies that have proven reserves and have shown an ability to get more gas out of the ground. Among the large-caps are Anadarko (APC:NYSE - news), Devon Energy (DVN:NYSE - news), EOG Resources (EOG:NYSE - news) and Ocean Energy (OEI:NYSE - news). Among mid-cap and smaller companies, focus on Mitchell Energy (MND:NYSE - news), Newfield Exploration (NFX:NYSE - news), Cross Timbers (XTO:NYSE - news) and Houston Exploration (THX:NYSE - news). The list also includes Barrett Resources (BRR:NYSE - news), although its pending merger with Williams (WMB:NYSE - news) has the stock fully valued. You don't have to hurry to these names. With most estimates suggesting another three weeks of strong natural gas storage data, these stocks may get cheaper before they begin to heat up for summer. Raymond James' Adkins provides a solid look at the strategy. "From a stock perspective, it is reasonable to assume that most of the E&P and oilfield service stocks would react negatively to a near-term downturn in commodity [prices]," he says. "We would sit on the sidelines until it is clear that gas prices have bottomed. That will likely occur between May and June. After gas prices stabilize, back up the truck because the ride upward will likely be fast and furious." Hold on.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (102147)	5/15/2001 3:26:56 PM
From: re3	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

bought GOLD @ 4.44 sold glamis 1/2 yesterday, 1/2 today no position in glamis