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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (46732)	5/14/2001 7:01:24 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

For all those wondering if its time to buy semis here is a great article: grantsinvestor.com

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (46732)	5/14/2001 8:41:40 PM
From: Pete Young	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, Brian, Will, Bill, thanks for your thoughts. Cary, 300mm will not drive down the cost of mixed signal? Analog cannot be implemented on 300mm? How is DSP logic any different from any other CMOS? Why invest in 300 mm fabs at all if the producers cannot get much better productivity out of them? I maintain that if manufacturers cannot get prices down for the "goodies", most people will refuse to buy them. But if they can, Katy bar the door. I suspect that TI, Intel and the like understand this. Brian, I'm not at all sure that once a company like, say LVLT puts in thousands of miles of a large bundle of empty conduit, (I got a good look of it when it passed through a part of Oregon I was travelling through last summer...and I don't own any stock--always seemed too expensive) another company is going to want to invest all those low tech dollars to dig a trench on the other side of the road to do the same thing. From what I gather from the LVLT 10k's etc. is that their strategy is to use all that empty conduit is to conduct a bandwidth jihad in prices and take out any other competition along the same route. (That is if they make it themselves.) Can they make money this way? Don't know, that's why I posed the question. Is there any place else in the telecom universe that can make money if the long-haul companies cannot? Bill, can you fill us in what applications use GaAs? I think I read that the 802.11a,b applications have been implemented in CMOS to keep their prices low, but perhaps I'm wrong on that. I also read the article from Grants. I spent quite a bit of time reading Grants back in the early 90's when this all started. Very cautious guy. Cost me plent of money...but perhaps he's right this time. Certainly makes some (now) reasonable statements about all the terrors under the bed. If it comes true, I guess that '29 would be a good comparision.