To: Zardoz who wrote (69178 ) 6/29/2001 4:12:55 PM From: long-gone Respond to of 116788 <<Answer one question. What is money?>>Credit Even when it is not repaid or repaid only in part + late? Thursday June 28, 11:47 am Eastern Time Special Report-Credit card issuers' profits set to rise (UPDATE: The following is one of a series of outlook pieces for the financial industry) By F. Brinley Bruton NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - Credit card companies are expected to post a double-digit rise in profits during the second quarter, as lending gets cheaper, but things will get tougher toward the end of the year amid rising bankruptcies and loan defaults. Leading credit card issuers like MBNA Corp. (NYSE:KRB - news), Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE:COF - news), and Providian Financial Corp. (NYSE:PVN - news) also are benefiting from tightened lending terms and stiff late payment fees they have slapped on customers in recent years. ``It should be a pretty good quarter for all these guys,'' said Jay McKelvey, a co-portfolio manager of the Hancock Real Estate Fund. Looking ahead, ``I think the revenues will be there, it is just a matter of making sure the credit quality holds up.'' The ongoing rise in charge-offs -- or loans that go bad -- and rising bankruptcy rates could hurt credit quality and curtail the sector's growth toward the end of 2001, analysts said. Unemployment, which has been creeping up in recent months, could spur more defaults, they fear. On the flip side, falling interest rates have boosted credit card companies' profits so far this year. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday reduced interest rates for a sixth time since January 3. Lower interest rates cut lending costs for credit card issuers and banks. NOT AS BAD AS IT LOOKS U.S. credit card portfolio losses hit a four-year high in April amid rising unemployment, higher fuel prices, and the slumping stock market, according to Standard & Poor's Corp. The monthly charge-off rate rose 0.6 percentage points to 6.7 percent in April from March. But the news is not as bad as it looks, as long as issuers manage the risk of bad loans and understand their customers, said David Berry, director of research at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc. Take sub-prime lender Providian, which has a charge-off rate that's about twice as high MBNA's but also sports a return on assets that's double the high-end lender's, Berry said. ``Providian tends to hang out in rougher neighborhoods,'' he said. ``The main trick about rougher neighborhoods is that you can have a very different experience if you meant to go there or if you just showed up,'' Berry said. A rule of thumb for analysts covering credit card issuers has been to keep a close eye on the subprime market. Subprime lenders, such as Providian, Metris Cos. Inc. (NYSE:MXT - news), and CompuCredit Corp. (NasdaqNM:CCRT - news), serve less credit-worthy consumers, making their money on higher interest rates and higher fees. But recent evidence indicates that some of the worry may have been misplaced, said Moshe Orenbuch, an analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston. ``I actually think the risk is highest in people who have high credit lines, because those are the people who cost you a lot when they file for bankruptcy,'' he said. Bankruptcies, which spiked from mid-March to mid-April most likely in anticipation of pending bankruptcy legislation, are another concern for issuers. Bankruptcy reform makes it harder for individuals to wipe out their debts. But bankruptcies may be the boogeyman of the high-end issuer, analysts said. Indeed, bankruptcies make up 40 percent to 50 percent of losses in prime credit card portfolios, but only 15 percent in non-prime or sub-prime portfolios, according to Barklays Capital. Higher income folk also have racked up more debt compared with their lower-income counterparts. Saving rates fell from 8.5 percent in the early 1990s to minus 2.1 percent last year for the highest income group in the United States, Barklays said. Meanwhile, the middle and lowest income groups saw their savings rates go up during the same period, Barklays said.