Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Ask da_cheif -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (1792)	5/15/2001 7:59:31 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8150

Yup..., Prickter has given up forcasting..., people must have stopped looking and turned it all over to Steven L. Hochberg who's apparently done fairly good job I understand..! elliottwave.com services.elliottwave.com Few Cuts from the free week: May 14th >>The wave labels on our NYSE Composite Index chart indicate our stance: we remain short-term bearish, intermediate-term bullish and long-term bearish (see EWFF for intermediate to long term outlook). Minute wave four is in progress from 642.64, the April 30 high. Corrections can take many forms including various combinations, which make them a challenge to label in real time. Still, the key is to realize that the market is indeed in a correction that should resolve with another leg to new recovery highs. The highest probable pattern that this particular fourth wave is tracing out is a flat (see EWP, p. 45). It still appears that subwave (c) should draw prices lower in the coming days prior to bottoming and finishing wave four. Support remains in the 613-624 area, or slightly lower. A push back above yesterday's 641.90 high either means the fourth wave is tracing out an expanded flat (see EWP, p.46), or the fifth wave is underway that will compete the entire impulsive rise from the March 22 low. If required, we will address this scenario in tomorrow's special Update. So our top view is that the near-term pattern will count best with another leg down in the coming days. This view will remain intact so long as prices do not rally above 641.90, the wave (b) high (see chart).<< >>There's not much new to information to add to Friday night's comments for the [S&P 500]. If the near-term count is correct in the NYSE Composite Index (and another down leg in the fourth wave is coming), then the fourth wave in the S&P 500 is likely to morph into a flat instead of the triangle shown in the chart above. We will know by a break of 1232 in the cash (1235 in futures), which would negate the triangle count. At today's close, the Spoos (S&P futures) are bumping up against hourly moving average resistance, which should cap any further rally. Thus a strong open and follow-through tomorrow (higher after the first 15-30 minutes of trading) would be the first sign that the triangle count was in fact correct and the market was breaking out and heading up to new recovery highs in a fifth wave. We will keep an open mind ahead of the Fed announcement tomorrow afternoon, as market action could get volatile. Moreover, it works both ways. If the triangle count is correct in the S&P, then the NYSE Composite will likely join in the rally and push to new recovery highs (above 642.64). So the S&P indexes may be a good early warning for which direction the market will break near-term. Corrections can be difficult to count at times but are nonetheless part of the reality of market behavior, so we must deal with it. A break of the above cited support levels in the S&P will project prices toward 1204-1222 futures and 1201-1217 in cash. There is also a chart gap at 1195.50 in futures and 1191.53 in cash. Markets don't often leave gaps unfilled. Thus, there is the strong potential that these gaps will indeed be filled if the market gives us another leg down in the near term. As before, a new recovery high in the S&P should push the indexes toward higher resistance of 1309-1325 in futures and 1304-1322 in cash. This next leg up will complete wave A of a larger A-B-C bear market rally. We expect these levels to be attained AFTER our forecasted near-term decline.<<