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To: fingolfen who wrote (135087)	5/15/2001 12:44:38 PM
From: Elmer	Respond to of 186894

I can see your point there, but I don't think it's an apples to apples comparison. The first product released on 0.18 micron was a shrink of the mobile P2 die. It was placed into [very] limited release as a niche product. The first "real" 0.18 micron product was coppermine, which was not released until September/October '99 if memory serves. Tualatin is allegedly going to be a release far similar to Cu'Mine as opposed to the P2 mobile shrink[Dixon]. I guess we'll have to see what volumes come out in the first couple of weeks after launch. If it's a big launch, then it should be compared to the Cu'Mine launch date, not the P2 shrink date... (I know it's going to be more than 18 months in both cases, but it's a more valid comparison). I don't see how they can make it such a big launch when they are pushing the P4 generation. Otherwise I agree with your statement. . Intel will enjoy a 30% cost per die advantage on 300mm when compared to the same 200mm process. In this industry, 30% is HUGE I don't see it quite this way. Holding up ASPs is far more important than die cost. What adds more to the bottom line, a 30% cheaper die or holding your ASP $50 higher? 300mm fabs will add capacity and that's probably their major advantage. Now if ASPs are permanently depressed then perhaps your point is correct. This begs the question, what is Intel working on to follow-up the P4???? Intel has said the P4 will scale to 10GHz. That's got to be 2 or more process generations out so by your count that's 4 or more years. Plenty of time to develop the P5 assuming work has already started. EP

To: fingolfen who wrote (135087)	5/15/2001 1:01:43 PM
From: dale_laroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

>AMD by contract can't foundry out more than 20% of its total volume.< A lease agreement is significantly different than a foundry agreement, and I doubt if it would be covered by the unit volume cap. AMD could lease floor space and buy their own 193nm lithography equipment to install in this floor space. Then, as the transition to 157nm lithography is made, UMC could be rplacing the AMD 193nm equipment with UMC 157nm equipment as AMD installs 157nm equipment at Fab35. AMD might even move 193nm lithography equipment from UMC's Fab12 to Fab35 to accellerate the ramp, actually replacing it with smaller wavelength lithography equipment only after Fab35 is fully ramped.

To: fingolfen who wrote (135087)	5/15/2001 1:22:59 PM
From: dale_laroy	Respond to of 186894

>What's your source??? I've seen no speeds even remotely resembling that on any roadmap.< If you look at AMD's chart for the increase in performance of Athlon over time, and adjust for the anticipated IPC improvement for Athlon in going from TBird to Thoroughbred, the indication is about 2333 MHz before Barton ships. It could go further if AMD continued to produce Thoroughbred after introducing Barton, but for all practical purposes 2333 MHz will be the limit. Similarly, Barton will probably go beyond 2833 MHz, but for all practical purposes Barton will be so hopelessly behind at 2833 MHz that any further increase will come from natural progression of the process technology, not targeting a higher speed grade. I would not be at all surprised if AMD pulls the same stunt with Barton that they did with K6-2+, cancelling the desktop variant.