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To: Jdaasoc who wrote (72932)	5/15/2001 12:33:50 PM
From: Don Green	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Merrill cuts PC growth outlook By Margaret Kane Special to CNET News.com May 15, 2001, 9:00 a.m. PT news.cnet.com Growth is getting ever slower in the world's PC markets, according to Merrill Lynch, which reduced its forecasts for the current year from a 7 percent to a 3 percent increase. But analyst Steve Fortuna said in a research note Tuesday that while this year could be weak, things are beginning to look up. "Next year could be surprisingly strong in light of the current deferrals coupled with a number of important growth drivers in place," he said, pointing to the release of Windows 2000 and its updates, and the "re-acceleration" of the small-business, European and consumer sectors. As a result, he raised his 2002 worldwide unit-growth estimates from 15.5 percent to 17.5 percent. He upped unit-growth rates for the United States from negative 3.5 percent to 1 percent, and for Europe from 1 percent to 5 percent. The largest estimate increase came in Japan, where Fortuna increased 2002 unit-growth rates from 6.5 percent to 12 percent. Fortuna said Dell Computer was best positioned to take advantage of the growth "owing to the company's increasing mix of enterprise-class products." Fortuna had already cut growth figures for 2001 in February. And he wasn't alone: Goldman Sachs analyst Rick Sherlund lowered his outlook on Microsoft back in March, based on similar concerns about the PC market. Market research firm Dataquest recently predicted that worldwide PC sales would grow only 10.7 percent this year, or about 4 points lower than in 2000. U.S. sales are expected to be at best flat year-over-year, the company said. That was one of the factors that went into Fortuna's most recent cut, he said. He also pointed to sluggish sales for PC motherboard companies in April, off 24 percent from March. Since May and June numbers "typically build sequentially from April, second-quarter shipments could be flat to down 3 percent from the first quarter," rather than flat to up 3 percent as they normally are, he said. Recent reports from distributors Tech Data and Ingram Micro were not optimistic regarding demand.

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (72932)	5/15/2001 12:34:01 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

RE:"I would have to believe that this P3 die shrink will do for Intel anything they need to be done regarding speed and power consumption issues relative to AMD's offerings." Why is a die shrink only getting the P-III a 20% gain in clock? How much less power will the Tualatin mobile consume than the .18u mobile P-III? Thanks, Jim

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (72932)	5/16/2001 5:24:02 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Scunbria: AMD to announce Dell design win for Athlon 4 With Tualatin available in July, I doubt that Dell will make many AMD notebooks. john siliconstrategies.com New CPU aimed at fending off threats from AMD, Transmeta, and Via By Mark LaPedus Semiconductor Business News (05/16/01 15:04 p.m. EST) SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- Intel Corp. is quietly sampling its first products based on its 0.13-micron process technology--a microprocessor line for use in notebook and low-end PCs, according to analysts. The new processor line is designed to fend off competitive threats from Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Transmeta Corp., and Via Technologies Inc. Intel's new chip, code-named Tualatin, is a long-awaited, 0.13-micron version of the company's Pentium III processor line. At present, the Pentium III is based on a 0.18-micron technology, but the processor family is running out of steam, analysts said. At a recent press briefing in Hillsboro, Ore., officials from Intel confirmed the existence of Tualatin, saying that the product will be rolled out in July. But Intel denied the company was experiencing problems in ramping up its 0.13-micron technology. Last month, chip-equipment vendor Silicon Valley Group Inc. confirmed a three-to-four month delay in shipment of its new scanner, which is based on 193-nm, argon-fluoride (ArF) laser technology (see April 25 story). The delay is impacting Intel and other customers. Company executives also denied reports that said SVG's tool delay would impact Intel's migration to 0.13-micron technology (see April 27 story). "The various press reports are wrong," insisted Sunlin Chou, senior vice president and general manager of the Technology and Manufacturing Group, during a question/answer session at a briefing last Friday. The SVG tool delays "have not impacted our migration to 0.13-micron technology," Chou told reporters and analysts. "Our 0.13-micron migration is doing well." While Intel did not elaborate, Tualatin will solidify the company's position "in the mobile and value PC markets," said analyst Nathan Brookwood, principal of InSight 64 Research in Saratoga, Calif. On the mobile front, Intel's Tualatin will come in two speed grades--1.16- and 1.26-GHz. These chips will eventually replace the older Pentium III MPUs in the mobile arena. In the value PC segment, Tualatin will be offered at 1.13- and 1.2-GHz. Over time, these chips will replace the Celeron, Brookwood said. In fact, Tualatin is already in the hands of key OEMs. "If Intel plans to announce the product in July, then I'm sure that they began sampling months ago," Brookwood said. On the mobile front, Intel's Tualatin is expected to compete against products from AMD and Transmeta. In fact, on Monday, AMD claimed the lead in high-performance processors for portable PCs with the launch of a 1-GHz AMD Athlon 4 and new speed grades of Duron chips for lower cost systems (see May 14 story ). AMD's new Athlon 4 portable PC central processing units push CPU speeds to 1 GHz, while the Duron takes performance up to 850 MHz in the "value" segment of portable personal computers. The 1-GHz Athlon 4 hits the market at a price of $425 each in quantities of 1,000, while the 850-MHz Duron is priced at $197, said the Sunnyvale company. In the notebook space, Transmeta has been making the most noise by garnering an impressive list of design wins. Many of its OEMs are Japanese PC makers--which are also Intel's best customers. Earlier this month, notebook PC giant Toshiba Corp. announced a new notebook PC based on Transmeta's x86-compatible Crusoe microprocessor line (see May 7 story). The introduction is seen by industry observers as the biggest design win yet for Santa Clara, Calif.-based Transmeta, which is attempting to compete with giant Intel Corp. and carve out a position in portable PCs. Toshiba said it will make its Crusoe-based notebook available in Japan on May 18. The 2.4-pound computer--called Libretto L1/060TNMM--will offer 14 hours of battery life using a 600-MHz central processor from Transmeta. On the value side, Intel's new chip will compete against AMD's Duron and Via Technology's Inc.'s MPUs. In this segment, Taiwan's Via recently disclosed its new microprocessor roadmap, including plans to develop an x86-based product with speeds up to 1.2-GHz (see May 1 story ).