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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: STEVE who wrote (90917)	5/15/2001 8:11:44 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

API's pointing to $15-$18 Oil folks... We may be seeing the last days of Wine & Roses passing before our eyes here in the Patch people... keyword there being "may". Commodity prices reflect supply & demand trends combined with the sentiment of the specs & commercials. That sentiment overswings in both directions - as do commodity prices soon there after. We now know prices over-swung to the downside in the the fall of 1998 & we "may" soon realize the over-swung too far to the upside here of late. I simply see NO POSSIBLE WAY - that the API supply stats can keep this trend in THIS economic environment and us not see a dramatic correction in crude prices and see it soon. Also; $3.35 - $4.50 Nat Gas - while historically high; will NOT be enough to sustain the OSX at 125-135; let alone be enough to take the OSX to new highs. First & foremost: THIS IS, WAS AND WILL ALL WAYS BE - A CYCLICAL SUBSECTOR. Let the possiblity of $18-$22 Crude appear on the horizon, let NG settle into the mid-high $3's and there will be little doubt that the shareprice top in this cycle was put in - last Sept thru this March. Time to be a skeptic here...tradingwise; STILL not long a single dime in the patch ... not a dime. While the Cap Ex spending environment may look rosy here; let crude correct to where the API's are pointing and that cap ex environment will change dramatically. Got Gold ... ?