Lets beat on CDMA 2000 for a change ;-)
Excellent Reporting, CDMA2000 sucks. Wonder if I could buy a report from Charles Golvin, an analyst at Forrester Research Inc, who seems to really be on top of this.
Two delays in 3G wireless and counting
By MATT HAMBLEN
(May 15, 2001) In the race to be first with third-generation (3G) wireless services, the winner is still up in the air.
Yesterday, British Telecommunications PLC postponed the launch of its first 3G network on the small Isle of Man in the British Isles (see story), just about three weeks after NTT DoCoMo Inc. announced a 3G delay in Tokyo to Oct. 1 (see story).
Both companies fell victim to software problems involving a remote node controller in their networks, which doesn't permit users calling outside a single cell to move without losing either voice or data, experts and BT officials said.
BT is working with its subsidiary, Isle of Man-based Manx Telecom, to develop the software with handset maker NEC Corp. Tokyo-based NEC is also working with NTT DoCoMo, said NTT officials.
"It's a disappointment and a fairly minor glitch in the scheme of things," said Roger Westbury, a spokesman for London-based BT. "Still, the problem meant you'd have an unmobile mobile phone, so that's no good."
BT was planning to roll out the service to 70,000 users at the end of this month, offering video and other multimedia services over phones with bandwidth much higher than the current 14K bit/sec. But BT will postpone the launch until late summer or early fall. "We shan't launch it until we're sure it's working," Westbury said.
The NTT DoCoMo rollout was for 150,000 users in Tokyo, but was replaced by an introductory service for only 4,000, with the larger rollout in October, company officials said.
Analysts said they weren't concerned about the glitch. "A technical glitch such as this is not something to write home about," said Shiv Bakhshi, an analyst at Framingham, Mass.-based IDC, which is a sister company to Computerworld. "There are different interfaces involved with content, network distribution and reception on the handsets and to get one to talk to another, which involves a tremendous amount of technical and business coordination."
Phil Marshall, analyst at The Yankee Group in Boston, said the NTT DoCoMo and BT networks use Wideband Code Division Multiple Access networks, while U.S. carriers such as Kansas City, Mo.-based Sprint PCS Group and New York-based Verizon Communications are developing the service in the narrowband Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) network. "It's slightly different technology and we don't expect the same problems" with the U.S. carriers, Marshall said. Redmond, Wash.-based AT&T Wireless Group is using yet another technology, Global System for Mobile Communications.
However, Sprint and other carriers aren't insulated from software glitches and delays, said Bakhshi.
In fact, there are enough similarities between wideband and narrowband CDMA to expect similar difficulties for Sprint and Verizon with 3G rollouts, said Charles Golvin, an analyst at Forrester Research Inc. in San Francisco. "3G is still in development and these kinds of hiccups are to be expected," he added. "The rollout has been overhyped."
Faster network speeds from more efficient network use and the ability to offer video and other media to users, mainly consumers, are the main benefits of 3G, said Golvin. The delay is more of a problem in Japan, where networks are overburdened and 3G will increase demands on capacity, especially for voice traffic, he noted.
Both Sprint and Verizon have completed 3G trials and are expecting to roll out some version of 3G services in the fourth quarter, meaning either of them could be the first in the world with such services, Golvin said.
But carriers are using 3G to describe even incremental improvements in bandwidth at first, in some cases only increasing bandwidth from 14K bit/sec. to 40K bit/sec., analysts said.
3G has come to mean a variety of services as well, such as location-based services atop faster bandwidth. Other carriers have described it as more efficient use of the radio spectrum or even new expensive infrastructure, analysts said. Some carriers stretch the definition of 3G partly to be able to be first out the door, and "the major advantage to being first to implement 3G is having bragging rights, bragging about the number of arrows in your back," said Alan Reiter, an analyst at Wireless Internet & Mobile Computing in Chevy Chase, Md.
But, "being first isn't much of an advantage in 3G because there aren't any must-have applications," especially for business users, Reiter added.
Jack Gold, an analyst at Stamford, Conn.-based Meta Group Inc., said some devices, such as Waterloo, Ontario-based Research in Motion Ltd.'s Blackberry device, are doing well with today's relatively slow bandwidth, partly because professionals rely on them only for e-mail, which doesn't require users wait in real time for data.
Gold said he hopes that carriers will take time to roll out 3G equipment because the costs to buy new spectrum have been enormous: more than $150 billion worldwide. "Who's going to pay for all that? You know who," he said, alluding to consumers.
idg.net
Wonder if it is really dark (no sunlight) where his head is now? |
