Hiya Challo
my take is we rally then pullback THEN go long..we are getting overbought on all my P&F indicators as you know..
here are my thoughts..from Sunday nites report to all the troops....my e-mail...is...jerrysdogs@home.com
----- Original Message -----
From: Jerry Olson
Sent: Monday, May 14, 2001 8:18 AM
Subject: Fw: GAME PLAN!!!!
While there will be some duplicates in this e-mail...i wanted to show you my potential weekly letter format...the only difference for actual subscribers will be, entry prices, where to place your stops, when to exit and how to trail up stop gains..
i will be in these trades with you...so my money and your money will be one and the same to me...
if you have any other friends or associates that might be interested in this service let me know...
the cost will be $40 per month, payable the 1st of each month...
i am going to send this out to all my contacts this next 2 weeks to see who's interested in swing and position type trades for stocks and options...i trade options heavily when market direction is moving one way...
have a good week and watch yourselves out there...
----- Original Message -----
From: Jerry Olson
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 7:29 PM
Subject: GAME PLAN!!!!
Good Evening everyone..
Happy Mother's Day out there to all you wonderful MOM's...We had the family over for a Bar-B-Q..it was nice...
This Newsletter Report will be a bit longer than my usual morning e-mail, and will serve as the coming format for my longer term trading perspective letter if I choose to do it...
Current we have an astonishing trading week ahead for us...The FOMC is the headliner of this show, along with Options Expiration week, and the CPI and a slew of other economic reports for us to look at and react too as the volitility will be at a feverish peak this week...Might i suggest that you take great care in what i perceieve to be a whipsaw week almost each and every day...Some may choose to sit on the sidelines thru the FED, and then react...Others may choose to only trade 1 or 2 stocks each and everyday thru this expected wild week....In any case, please watch your captial accounts...losses could be heavy "if you bet wrong"...DO NOT GAMBLE...
Let's get to the potential senario's vis a vis the FED's next move...My thinking is they will cut a full .50 basis points as expected and the markets will rally on that news for sure...However, everything i am looking at right at this point in time, says we are in danger here of a large correction in the markets no matter what the FED does...If we rally up hard for a week or so, then the VIX will trigger a short sale in the markets, as will all of my Point and Figure Charts i watch..Meaning we will be come heavily overbought on all my indicators i use for swing and position type trades...
This will set up a solid pullback in all the stocks, indexs and sectors we know and love so well...And this my trading buddies will set the stage for a major summer rally that i will be heavily long as this expected "Pullback" hits support areas...these pullbacks to the middle of those trading bands we watch all the time...on P&F. Then when these solid stocks reverse back up?, we take long position type trades with use of trailing stops to capture this next best move up...it will be spectacular..in fact i predict it will take out all resistances on all the indexs with great power...We will re visit my senario as it unfolds...
Currently the DOW has just reversed back down here after a near touch of that heavy R area of 11,000....10, 650 is the double bottom breakdown brings this index to 10,450...On P&F 11,000 is a major breakout area obviously...whats so interesting to me is we are right dead in the middle of the chart right here and right now..and could go either way...In fact one thing i was thinking about is the potential of a breakout first, then a selloff, and then an explosion up and thru whatever the new highs would be short term....just a thought...
While i always seem to be 1-2 days or maybe a week early on this bullish side bias, i must admit, we could just move straight down as well....Trust me, my trailing stops are in place, i am not going to fool with Mother Market<G>...I will not sit there and take any losses just to prove a point...not me, and not you...If the FED decides to only cut .25 basis points then i think we'll head straight down the tubes, right to my support numbers...After the shock wears off, from those Wall Street Idiots, they will begin to understand that we are not going into a recession, and that a .25 basis point hike is saying just that...so we'll rally off those slams just like we always do....We'll buy that dip if it happens this week into next...
Originally when the FED began to raise rates back over 1 1/2 years ago or so, world wide rates rose as well...over 105 times countries around the globe raised thier rates too...Well the reverse is happening right now, everyone is cutting rates to stimulate their own economies and that very very bullish...Sure we won't see the results of these rate cuts till the end of this year, but folks it will be way to late to invest if you wait that long...Remember this...we can trade it for as long as we can on either side of the middle, long or short, and continue to make solid position type trades too...We just follow the trend up or down as it dictates to us which way they wanna go<G>...
COMPX...This index as been a slow mover here...It could not breakout of that 2250 area...and is slowly pulling back toward 2000, thats a double bottom breakdown area...and of course 2250 is a big breakout number no matter what...
SOX...Here's the key for me...If AMAT misses on Tues After the bell, and warns about the rest of the year, this could rock the SOX lower pulling that INDEX to 520/540 area, Taking the NAZ along with it for sure...600 is the big breakdown number...and the index has solid support at the Bullish Suppport line at 520/540 ish....700 would be an explosion up and out for the SOX and the NAZ would be breaking out at 2250 as well...they will move together fwiw..let's watch it happen...
SPX...it has very heavy R at 1270, 1280 is a large breakout number for this index...a quadruple top breakout of major proportions...Listen, this could happen this week???...However!, the May 4th lows at 1230 is a double bottom breakdown area...it would plunge this index right to heavy S at 1180ish...Any break of Carpino's 5/4 lows is the big downside trigger...To me this index gives you the trend change that keeps you heavily short of heavily long in swing and position type trades...Set alerts...in fact set alerts on all indexs...as they trigger either long or short...you'll be happy you did..
Now we come to the VIX index...it's been hovering at the 27 level for a while...the Sell trigger is at 26, takes it to 23, at 23 i feel the correction will be swift, volitile and very strong to the downside...It would not suprise me that all the indexs would retrace to my support numbers...quickly...BUT!!!! maybe we get this FED rally to push this index down like i think it's bound to do short term...
On Tues this week at 2.15 pm, the FOMC will announce the decsion on interest rates...Please be flat going into that event...if you try to trade it, you'll get your ass handed to you..From 2.15 to 2.45 the futures will whipsaw this market in a frenzy like dance that many newbies have not seen before...Stay on the side lines and watch...Once the TRUE direction appears then we can position ourselves to make some big time trades that last hour and on into the next few days..What with earnings and Options Exp week, it going to be awesome to watch and trade that action...
So thats the sum and substance of what i think is about to happen...No matter what the outcome...please be ultra cautious here with your trading capital till we can determine what the next best trend in these wild and crazy markets will be for now...stay calm as always..your eagerness can get you killed...sit still and think!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! do not chase...wait...it is my opinion that either way this resolves itself...when we do pullback, that will be the time to go long for that big run north...
OK HERE'S THE TOP TRADERS FOR THIS WEEK'S WATCH LIST..IT WILL NOT CHANGE...EVERY STOCK ON THIS LIST IS AN EARNINGS PLAY FOR THIS WEEK...
1...PDLI---BIO TECHS ARE PULLING BACK RIGHT NOW....IT'S RIGHT AT SUPPORT AT 59...58 BREAKS IT DOWN...MY DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 50/51 WHERE WE WOULD CONSIDER IT A LONG PLAY IF MY MARKET SENARIO PLAYS OUT AS EXPECTED...PUT THIS STOCK ON YOUR LONG PORTFOLIO WATCH LIST ALONG WITH HGSI--CRA--MYGN--GENZ ETC ETC ETC..WE'LL REVIST THEM ALL OVER TIME...59 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...62 IS A TREND REVERSAL UP...57 3/4 THE SELL SHORT TRIGGER...THIS TRIGGER IS A PICTURE PERFECT SS...
2...AMAT---BEGINING TO LOOK LIKE IT'S TRYING TO ROLL OVER AND DOWN HERE...IT HAS EARNINGS TUES AFTER THE BELL(AH)...HEAVY R AT 56...GOOD S AT 50...A PRINT OF 49 BREAKS A TRIPLE BOTTOM...43/44 THE TARGET SHORT...IF THE MARKETS AND THE SOX HOLD UP IN THAT AREA...THEN I WOULD SUGGEST LEAP CALLS IN THIS BELLWEATHER STOCK...WE'LL TALK ABOUT IT LATER ON DOWN THE ROAD...52 3/.4 THE BUY TRIGGER...50 1/2 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER(SS)....
3...BEAS----IF YOU UNDERSTOOD POINT AND FIGURE CHARTING AS I DO, YOU WOULD SEE A PICTURE PERFECT TRADING CHART ON BEAS...IT'S BEEN A SCREAMING SHORT FOR A WEEK OR SO NOW...THE STOCK BROKE DOWN AT 35 A TRIPLE BOTTOM..HIT 33..AS I'VE TOLD YOU BEFORE..ALL TRIPLE BOTTOMS AND ALL TRIPLE TOPS CORRECT..NO EXCEPTIONS...SO IT HITS 33, REVERSES BACK UP AND RALLIES TO 37 A DCB(DEAD CAT BOUNCE)...I WAS HEAVILY SHORT THIS STOCK THEN...IT THEN PROCEEDS TO BREAK THAT OTHER BOTTOM WHERE IT HELD 33, AND PRINTS 32 ON FRIDAY..THIS IS A BEARISH CATAPULT FORMATION ON P&F...IT HAS SOLID S AT 29/30...SO HERE'S THE TRADE...33 1/2 THE LONG TRIGGER...30 3/4 THE SS...IF WE ARE TANKING..30 WILL NOT HOLD<VBG>...
4...BRCD---GOSH I LIKE THIS STOCK ON A MAJOR PULLBACK...FOR A LONG TYPE POSITION TRADE...IT JUST BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 43 AND MADE A LOWER TOP AS WELL...IT MIGHT DCB INTO EPS ON TUES AH...IT MUST TAKE OUT FRIDAYS HIGHS THOUGH.....41 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...39 THE SHORT SALE....THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND IS ABOUT 32 TO 35ISH AREA...WILL WATCH THE PULLBACK FOR MY LONG SIDE TRADE..
5...NTAP---INTERESTING CHART RIGHT HERE...IT BOTTOMED IN APRIL AT 11ISH, AND RALLIED UP HARD THRU EARLY MAY TO 29...A NICE MOVE...LOOKS LIKE TO ME IT;S ROLLING OVER AND DOWN RIGHT NOW...WE'LL KNOW FOR SURE THIS WEEK...23 1/4 IS THE SUPER SS TRIGGER..19 TARGET...25 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER ....
6...QLGC---WONDERFUL CHART TO DISSECT...FROM THE APRIL LOWS AROUND 18, THIS STOCK EXPLODED UP TO A TOP OF 51!!!!!!!!!!...WOW!...IT'S CURRENTLY TRADING BETWEEN THE MIDDLE AND TOP OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND ON THE P&F CHART...41 IS A CRITICAL TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN NUMBER...AND IT WOULD PLUNGE TO 32/33ISH...WHERE IF THE MARKET BEGAN TO REVERSE BACK UP..THIS WOULD BE A PERFECT AREA TO TAKE A LONG POSITION TYPE TRADE...ON A PULLBACK...45 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER...42 3/4 THE SS..WITH 41 BYE BYE BYE...A CONTINUATION SHORT...
7...CIEN---THIS WONDERFUL TRADER HIT 34 BUCKS AT THE APRIL LOWS..YES 34!!!, FLEW UP ON 3 CONSECUTIVE BUY SIGNALS TO A TOP OF 70 RIGHT AT THE BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE...STOPPED IT LIKE A BRICK WALL<G>...NOW IT HITS THIS WALL AND SELLS OFF HARD DOWN TO 48...AND RALLIES LAST WEEK UP TO 63...THIS WEEK WILL BE DO OR DIE...I LOVE THIS TYPE OF CHART FOR TRADING PURPOSES...ONE WAY OR THE OTHER IT'S GOING TO DO SOMETHING "BIG" THIS WEEK...INTO NEXT...IT HAS EARNINGS "BEFORE THE BELL" ON THURS...I AM CURRENTLY LONG THE MAY AND JUNE 55 CALLS...UH OH<g>...59 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG, WITH 61 A 3 BOX REVRSAL UP WITHOUT CIEN PRINTING 57 FIRST...SOUNDS A LITTLE CRAZY BUT THATS WHAT P&F TELLS ME RIGHT NOW....THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER IS 57, THIS WILL TAKE CIEN TO 47/48 AREA, AND THIS WOULD BE THAT DOUBLE BOTTOM TEST TO GO LONG...IF IT PRINTS 57 I WILL EXIT MY LONG OPTIONS...ALL OF THEM QUICKLY...
8..."A"---THE CURRENT CHART IS TRADING BETWEEN THE LOWER TO MID RANGE ON THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND...IT'S SET UP PERFECTLY FOR A NICE TRADE EITHER WAY...40 3/4 THE LONG TRIGGER...42 IS GOOD, 43 IS A BIG BREAKOUT NUMBER TARGET 48...ON THE SHORT SIDE...38 3/4 THE SS..36 A DOUBLE BOTTOM BREAK, A CONTINUATION SHORT.. 32 THE DOWNSIDE TARGET..HEY WHAT MORE CAN YOU ASK OF ME?<vbg>...
9...ADI---THE STOCK BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM ON FRIDAY AT 45...HAS HEAVY R AT 50..NICELY PLACED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND SO ALL PULLBACKS ARE TRADABLE LONG WHEN THE MARKET RALLIES UP...44 IS THE SS WITH S AT 39/40ISH...46 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER...48 A CONTINUATION LONG...51 THE TARGET AND SERIOUS BREAKOUT AREA FOR THIS STOCK...
10...DELL---- I AM CURRENTLY LONG THE DELL MAY/JUNE 25'S...I BOUGHT THEM UNDER A BUCK...IT'S BUILT A NICE LOOKING CHART DESPITE ALL THE WALL STREET PUNDITS OUT THERE..I AM NOT ECPECTING ANY EARTH SHAKING REVELATIONS FROM DELL...BUT THE CHART LOOKS OK TO ME RIGHT NOW...EPS AFTER THE BELL THURS...OPTIONS EXP IS FRIDAY<G>...WHEW!!!...IT HAS HELD THE BSL(BULLISH SUPPORT LINE) ON ALL SUCCESSIVE PULLBACKS...25 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER WITH THE FIRST SIGN OF A GOOD MOVE UP AT 28...31 IS THE DOUBLE TOP TARGET...23 1/2 THE SHORT SALE..20/21 HEAVY SUPPORT THERE...I LIKE THE ODDS OF THIS TRADE...IF I GET BURIED ON THE MAYS, I DO HAVE THE JUNES TO FALL BACK ON...
WELL THATS ABOUT IT FOR TONIGHT...I'LL BE IN AND OUT OF THE ROOM THIS WEEK..BUT CERTAINLY THERE FOR THE FED ON TUES...HERE'S A CALENDAR OF ECO REPORTS THIS WEEK...
MY BEST REGARDS TO YOU ALL..
JERRY
Economic Releases
Indicator Date Time Estimate Previous Actual Country
ECRI Weekly Leading Index for 05/04/2001 05/14/2001 1:00PM 122.0 US
Industrial Production for April 05/14/2001 9:15AM -0.2% 0.4% US
Business Inventories (MTIS) for March 05/14/2001 8:30AM -0.2% -0.2% US
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey for 2001Q2 05/15/2001 11:00AM -6.0 US
NAHB Housing Market Index for May 05/15/2001 1:00PM 56 US
Consumer Price Index for April 05/16/2001 8:30AM 0.3% 0.1% US
Oil and Gas Inventories for 05/11/2001 05/16/2001 9:00AM 318.8 MB US
Housing Starts (C20) for April 05/16/2001 8:30AM 1.57 million 1.61 million US
MBA Mortage Applications Survey for 05/11/2001 05/16/2001 7:30AM 558.9 US
Internet Sales for 2001Q1 05/16/2001 10:00AM $8.7 billion US
Jobless Claims for 05/12/2001 05/17/2001 8:30AM 384,000 US
FOMC Minutes 2:00PM 05/17/2001 US
Leading Indicators for April 05/17/2001 10:00AM 0.1% -0.3% US
Philadelphia Fed Survey for May 05/18/2001 10:00AM -10.0 -7.2 US
International Trade (FT900) for March 05/18/2001 8:30AM -$29.0 billion -$27.0 billion US
Treasury Budget for April 05/18/2001 2:00PM $165.0 billion -$50.7 billion US
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Jerry Olson
Master Class Trader...
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