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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (46875)	5/16/2001 3:09:47 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Yes, that's the way I see it, a huge bear rally that takes up the entire middle portion of this year. But I'm not so certain about where the top is, in time or price. I think it's better to follow specific indicators, rather than a specific date or number. The indicators are: 1. Fed starts to pay attention to inflation 2. consumer spending follows consumer sentiment and business spending, off a cliff 3. stocks start going down on company-specific bad news 4. counties whose economies are dependant on U.S. consumer spending start to have political instability. This could happen anytime. Probably in the second half of this year, but even that isn't certain. The Nas will just keep going higher, with a lot of volatility, until sentiment changes. I'd be surprised if we take out the January 2001 top (also the 200D moving average) at about 2900. 2900 would represent an 80% rally off the April 2001 bottom. Better than that would be irrational. Of course, irrationality has been standard behavior among investors, for the last several years, so who knows. If investors are still (still!!) willing to pay a PE of 60 for CSCO, then they could also be willing to pay a PE of 100 or 200. Hard to say how far the bubble is going to get re-inflated.