Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (1260)	5/16/2001 5:13:21 PM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 206336

Market rotation timming - I must conceed that you are right about the AGA builds. And, I think there is huge political risk for the energy companies. This is my VERY SHORT TERM VIEW - maybe 4 days to 2 weeks - However, I think that money is STILL flowing into the energy sector, Energy still has better numbers than other sectors, and I think the average investor will see the Bush Energy Plan as BULLISH. If you are a mutual fund, and you have to invest , where does it go ? Not tech, probably not finanacials, not consumer... Another way to say this is we are not having a normal rotation OUT of enrgy because hte other sectors are lousy. So I expect the sector to go up for about 2-4 days AFTER the plan is released. I will consider shorting / getting puts on NG E&P companies then - especially those with declining production. Right now I only have specialized plays - California (ROYL, OXY ) , new discoveries (SFY) and soem royalty trusts (undervalued) What I want to get puts on would be a high P/E multiple, leverged, declining production, mostly unhedged gas producer, preferably with an unsuccessful drilling record. Should also have a large market cap, heavily owned by institutions. APC, BR , UCL come to mind Any others ? Oh, and how about some asbestos liability also ? ;-)

To: jim_p who wrote (1260)	5/16/2001 5:18:57 PM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 206336

A political comment - In a blame culture, the Democrats have to stick the oil companies - ohterwise the environmentalists may get blamed, and with them, many Democrats. Lines like "Haven't built a power plant in 10 years in California" tend to hit home.

To: jim_p who wrote (1260)	5/16/2001 5:53:40 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206336

I think we will have a broad sell off on the news tomorrow of the energy policy Sounds like a good plan, Jim. And maybe a nice gap down on Friday since my short XNG/OSX calls settle at the opening? It can do whatever the hell it wants after that (and it will) but I find it hard to believe that we are not going to have at least a few weeks of weakness, especially when NG stocks exceed last year. Do you still see this as end of the cycle or do you expect any more runs to new highs? John